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This is an archive article published on March 12, 2011
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Opinion Mulayam Singh,man with a plan

His new aggression stems from the uncertainty of the SP’s electoral calculations.

Sudha Pai

March 12, 2011 12:12 AM IST First published on: Mar 12, 2011 at 12:12 AM IST

The battle to win Uttar Pradesh in the 2012 assembly elections has begun in earnest with Mulayam Singh Yadav announcing he would “do a Mubarak” to old foe Mayawati,and recapture the state. A three-day statewide agitation by leaders and workers in several cities including Lucknow,Etawah,Meerut and Gorakhpur against the ruling Bahujan Samaj Party has flagged off the Samajwadi Party’s electoral campaign. At a conference of office-bearers on February 26,Mulayam Singh outlined a strategy to revamp the party organisation and begin an early campaign so as to put sustained pressure on the ruling BSP over the next year,until the elections. The agitation led to confrontations with the police and the arrest of over 1,000 SP workers and MLAs,including Mulayam Singh’s son Akhilesh Yadav. These developments resulted in three adjournments,disruption of proceedings and noisy scenes in Parliament the next day,with SP members demanding the dismissal of the Mayawati government for excessive use of force and the alleged “house arrest” of Mulayam Singh to prevent him from leading the agitation.

Mulayam Singh’s keenness to make an early beginning is revealing of the current political scenario in UP,with the BJP showing no signs of interest in rebuilding its base and with little evidence so far that the Congress organisational structure is being strengthened. The next election,it appears,will be a highly charged contest between the SP and the BSP. The BSP is well-established as the ruling party,and has already begun extensive preparations for the elections,even declaring its first list of candidates for some constituencies. It won all the three assembly and two Lok Sabha seats in the by-elections held in April 2008; the Congress,SP and BJP lost badly. It also virtually swept the panchayat polls held in late October 2010.

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However,despite its defeat in 2007,the Samajwadi Party obtained almost the same percentage of votes (about 25 per cent) as in 2002,and now hopes,with some effort,to defeat the BSP. Promising to save the state from a corrupt and ineffective government,Mulayam Singh has made a number of serious charges against it: the siphoning-off of funds meant for development to the building of statues and memorials of Dalit icons,and the need for an inquiry into this; completing the budget session in a mere seven days,while neglecting the passage of important legislative bills; massive corruption in the bureaucracy and political leadership; and a tremendous increase in crime,with a breakdown of law and order.

The stridency of Mulayam Singh’s attack stems from his awareness that his support base is not as strong as in the past,due to new challenges that arise out of significant changes in the politics of the Hindi heartland. Over the last decade,there has been a real unravelling of backward-caste identity,as evidenced in the defeat of parties like the SP and the RJD. Throughout the ’90s,despite all efforts,Mulayam Singh failed to make use of the Mandal upsurge and create a homogeneous,backward-caste constituency for the SP. Increasing class divisions among the forward and backward sections,and the importance given to Mulayam Singh’s immediate followers and family,also contributed. Consequently,the SP remains largely a Yadav-based party with other sections often looking towards other parties.

A closely-related second change is that following the decline of identity politics,the issue of development has become important in mass politics,even more so after the recent victory of Nitish Kumar in Bihar. This has heightened aspirations among the electorate for a share in the rapid economic growth in the country,seen in the victory of incumbent state governments that have performed well during the 2000s: Bihar,Orissa,Andhra,Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. Consequently,a new relationship is evident between faster and more inclusive growth and politics,including electoral politics. This does not mean that identity politics has disappeared,rather that it is now used in combination with an agenda of growth for all sections,and not for the benefit of a particular social group as in the past.

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Hence,a major challenge faced by the SP in unseating the BSP is that it came to power on a winning “sarvajan” caste-combination and once in office has attempted development programmes for all social categories and regions,markedly different from its earlier Dalit agenda. While much publicity has been given by the media to Mayawati’s statue-building spree,less attention has been directed to her attempts at urban revival,housing and the improvement of infrastructure in the major metropolises and 43 other cities — with a special emphasis on numerous projects for sewerage,garbage disposal,drinking water facilities,roads,new overbridges,and so on. There are also programmes for scheduled castes and minorities,and the government has spent considerable part of its budget on social security for backward classes,women,children and the rural and urban poor. The chief minister is reported to personally monitor these programmes to ensure that they are implemented. If some of these benefits manage to reach the people,it could help the BSP in the coming elections,and transform the politics of Uttar Pradesh.

These developments explain the shrill and nervous urgency,even violence,with which Mulayam Singh has begun his electoral campaign a good year before the elections and his plans for a long-term,critical and concerted attack on the ruling party. Much will depend on how the people judge the BSP and what the SP’s alternative development agenda has to offer,in what promises to be a no-holds-barred campaign.

The writer is professor,Centre for Political Studies,Jawaharlal Nehru University