Opinion Maritime CBMs
As India and China continued their seemingly endless negotiations on the boundary dispute last week in Delhi,there was another event in faraway Cochin at the southern tip of the subcontinent.
As India and China continued their seemingly endless negotiations on the boundary dispute last week in Delhi,there was another event in faraway Cochin at the southern tip of the subcontinent.
The port call at Cochin this week by the Chinese warship Shenzen is not the first interaction between the two navies; nor will it be the last. But the interaction is just not enough. If Beijing and Delhi dont quickly embark on substantive maritime confidence-building,their future conflict in the Indian and Pacific Oceans is likely to overshadow their territorial tensions in inner Asia.
If their boundary dispute is a political legacy from the twentieth century,China and India are now staring at the prospect of a sustained maritime rivalry in the twenty first century. Beijing and Delhi are now strongly committed to a massive modernisation of their navies. Acquiring blue water fleets is now integral to the story of their unfolding rise in the international system.
If the Indian Navy dispatched naval contingents to both the Northern Pacific in the East and the Baltic Sea in the West this summer,the Peoples Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has marked 2009 by mounting sustained operations in the Gulf of Aden. The Shenzen is in fact returning home after participating in the Indian Ocean operations.
As both navies acquire the ability to operate at long distances and mount operations far from their home territory,their strategic footprints are bound to overlap and lead to mutual mistrust.
If Delhi and Beijing are wise enough to anticipate the potential maritime conflict coming at them with some force,they would encourage their navies to begin an honest dialogue on their mutual concerns and expand the scope of interaction.
Matching China
Admiral Sureesh Mehta,the outgoing Chief of Naval Staff and Chairman Chiefs of Staff Committee pointed on Monday to the expanding Chinese footprint in the Indian Ocean and challenge of coping with it. Admiral Mehta,however,was right in cautioning against an arms race with China and emphasising a cooperative engagement with Beijing.
By simply comparing the size of the two economies and resources available for defence spending,Adm Mehta was saying that India must play to its strengths rather than trying to match China weapon for weapon.
In the maritime domain,India for example has the advantage of access to open seas in three directions. The Chinese navy in contrast must find ways to overcome the series of island chains that severely constrain its freedom of manoeuvre.
Indias real advantage is its freedom to build partnerships with other major maritime powers in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. But the geopolitical interests of China on the one hand and the US and Japan on the other are unlikely to be harmonised in the near future.
South Pacific
India seems to be waking up slowly to the shifting balance of power in the South Pacific. Despite strong diasporic links and the strategic significance of the islands,it has not been easy to get Delhi to devote attention to the South Pacific.
In the last few years,China has overtaken United States,Japan,and Australia to become the leading benefactor of the South Pacific regimes. With an impressive aid programme,Beijing has emerged as a powerful player in the South Pacific.
Last week,foreign minister S.M. Krishna,who was visiting Australia,had a chance to engage the leaders of the island states. Addressing the Pacific Islands Forum,Krishna claimed that the South Pacific is very much part of Indias extended neighbourhood.
But the assistance that India offers to the South Pacific islands is pitiful compared to the scale and depth of Chinese economic penetration of the region. While Delhi has put a couple of million dollars on the table in the South Pacific,Beijings aid to the region is said to be a whopping US$ 206 million in 2008.
To be sure,the massive Chinese aid programme has been driven by the competition with Taiwan for diplomatic recognition from the Pacific Islands. All indications are that Chinese diplomacy in the South Pacific is now being driven by considerations of maritime strategy,naval access and forward presence.
The writer is a Professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies,Nanyang Technological University,Singapore.
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