Opinion In Bihar, it’s not just about a voter list

The sudden announcement of the SIR and widespread reports about disruptions and apprehensions caused by it demanded a quick, if rough, idea of the big picture.

Our survey cannot claim the level of accuracy of a proper scientific study. Six of the eight districts we surveyed (Katihar, Araria, Darbhanga, Madhubani, Saharsa, Sitamarhi, Patna and Rohtas) are in north Bihar. Except Patna (ranked among the top performers), all these fall among the middling performers in the SIR. While the selection of assembly segments (12 in all) and that of polling booths (17 in all) was dictated by the availability of teams, the household selected for interview was chosen randomly from the latest electoral rolls. While the findings of the survey are subject to a wide margin of error, they may be more robust than drawing-room speculation or anecdotal evidence.

The big news first: Two-thirds of Bihar’s adult population had not received the enumeration forms till the 13th day of the SIR. We found that, in all, only 43 per cent of families reported receiving enumeration forms, despite a slight but steady improvement on each day of our survey — from 39 per cent on the first day to 43 per cent on the final day. Since these forms are individualised (with the printed name and photo of the person from the latest ER), not all members of the family receive the forms simultaneously. In all, only 36 per cent of the adult household members reported receiving the form. Only 6 per cent had received two copies of the forms (one to be submitted and another to be retained by the applicant) as required under the SIR guidelines. The remaining 30 per cent were supplied only one copy.

Compare these sobering figures with the official claims. The ECI claimed on July 5 that it had disbursed enumeration forms (presumably two copies each) to 94 per cent of the persons on the last electoral rolls. Not just that, the ECI has also claimed that more than 36 per cent have already filled in the enumeration form and submitted it to the election officials by July 7. Now, as mentioned above, our survey may contain fairly large errors, but the difference between the official claims of 94 per cent and the survey estimate of 36 per cent is simply too big to be the result of a sampling error. Unless the ECI has misread the number of forms dispatched from its office as the number delivered to the end user and the number of forms supplied as the number submitted, we are looking at a Himalayan discrepancy that is crying for attention.

The survey findings also confirm the aggregate data analysis and the series of reports in this paper that a large proportion of the voters who may be required to submit documents to prove their citizenship do not possess any of the 11 documents on the ECI list. Our teams helped the household members to locate their names on the 2003 rolls and explained documentary requirements to those who did not figure there. In all, only 60 per cent of all the persons surveyed fulfilled the ECI’s conditions for inclusion of their names as per the guidelines of the SIR. As many as 37 per cent of all persons did not fulfil any conditions: Their names did not figure on the 2003 rolls and they did not possess any one of the documents asked for by the ECI. (The remaining 3 per cent of cases were unclear.) The proportion of those who may be declared ineligible was staggering — above 60 per cent — among those in the age group 18-40.

This rapid assessment estimate of 37 per cent “ineligible” voters works out to about 2.9 crore potential eligible voters who may be deprived of their right to vote. The figure may come down if many people succeed in obtaining fresh certificates in the next fortnight. Or, if the ECI expands, formally or informally, the “indicative (not exhaustive) list of documents” in its SIR order. As things stand today, the apprehension of mass disenfranchisement is not misplaced.

Our teams discovered that marginalised social groups — poor, Dalit, extremely backward communities, Muslims and women cutting across all communities — were disproportionately at the receiving end of possible exclusion. In the village of Sharanpur, 25 km from Araria, is the Nonia (EBC) family of Rampati Devi. Four of the eight adults do not have their names on the 2003 list, nor do they have any of the listed documents. Like most families we surveyed, they have Aadhaar and ration cards and the MGNREGA job card, which the ECI won’t accept. The condition was much worse in families in Mahadalit groups like Musahars. Our surveyors found a mad rush for caste or residence certificates, often triggered by the BLO’s instructions. In Sonvarsha segment of Saharsa district, Pirvat Ram, a Dalit worker, has spent Rs 150 to apply for a caste certificate for himself, his wife and his mother. Women face a special problem. In the family of Palti Devi from Bahadurpur in Darbhanga, her three daughters-in-law, Sanjana (26), Pooja (20) and Neha (18), do not know if their parents had their names in the 2003 list. Tara Khatoon (47) and Kismato Khatoon (36) in Surjapur tola have the same question: How do we get the 2003 list from our mayka (parents’ home)?

To be sure, this preliminary and rough estimate cannot settle the debate on the impact of the SIR. But at the very least, it points to a desperate need for independent verification of official claims. We would invite all mediapersons to travel to rural Bihar and investigate the ground reality. We would urge academics and social scientists to carry out bigger and more representative sample surveys, immediately after July 25, to assess the impact of the SIR. We would also urge the ECI to put out unit-level data (names of persons who have submitted forms) in the public domain, so that it can be verified. (This is not confidential information, as the draft electoral roll will in any case be published.) What is at stake is not just the voter list in Bihar, but the very principle of universal adult franchise.

Kamayani swami is state coordinator of Bharat Jodo Abhiyaan, Bihar. Rahul Shastri and Yogendra Yadav work with the national team of Bharat Jodo Abhiyaan.We would like to thank district team leaders Ram Babu Arya, Mohammad Tawfeej, Pawan, Govind, Umesh Sharma, Vishwaranjan, Sanjay Kumar and Bhola Nath Singh