Opinion Hitting Japan

If Japan’s decision was uncharacteristically bold,Beijing came down like a ton of bricks. When Tokyo refused and insisted that the law would take its course,Beijing called off the talks on energy development in disputed waters and cancelled the invitation for 1000 Japanese high school students who were to visit the Shanghai Expo. Prime Minister Wen Jiabao then stepped in demanding that Japan release the captain “immediately and unconditionally.” Global Times made a chilling case for hitting Japan where it hurts: “The pain has to be piercing. Japanese politicians need to understand the consequences — votes will be lost. Japanese companies have to be made aware of the loss of business involved. Japanese citizens will feel the burden due to the downturn in their economy… China’s domestic law,business regulations and consumers can all be manoeuvred.”

Tokyo’s soft spots were soon exposed,when Beijing slowed down the export of rare earth materials critical for so many modern industries,and arrested three Japanese citizens working in China. As pressure mounted from business houses in Japan to call truce with China,Tokyo stepped back by releasing the captain in the name of preserving a good neighbourly relationship. Once the captain was back in China,Beijing demanded an apology. Both Tokyo and Beijing now say the ball is in the other’s court to take the first step towards restoring status quo ante. The story is far from over.

India’s Lessons

India is not a stranger to China’s exercise of power. After all the 1962 war was about Beijing administering a political lesson to Jawaharlal Nehru. Unlike in the 1960s when Beijing was isolated in Asia and the world,China is now a great power,with levers that were unimaginable four decades ago. The small rocky and uninhabited islands in dispute between China and Japan are nothing compared to the size of Ladakh in Jammu and Kashmir and Arunachal Pradesh,contested by Delhi and Beijing. About 130,000 sq km of territory is under dispute.

The defence ministry would be well-advised to study the manner in which Beijing put Tokyo down,and learn the appropriate lessons from it. Defence Minister A. K. Antony might want to assess what humiliation at the hands of China,of the type suffered by Tokyo last week,could mean for the Congress party and the UPA government. Antony should know that weakness invites bullying and strength is the only basis for a mutually beneficial engagement with China.

Asian defence

Besides building one’s own strength,our defence establishment must pay more attention to the unfolding dynamic in the western Pacific,and deepen India’s military cooperation with leading East Asian nations. For the rise of China breaks down the distinctions between East and South Asia.

While the frequency and intensity of Indian contacts with Japan,South Korea,ASEAN and Australia have steadily grown in recent years,the defence ministry is a long way from thinking strategically about the link between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The IAS mandarins at the defence ministry tend to sneer at military diplomacy and have been quite cavalier about responding to the many calls from our Asian neighbours for defence cooperation. They have also avoided building institutional capacity to deal with the rapidly evolving Asian power balance. The longer the ministry’s learning curve,the greater is the possibility that India will be caught on the wrong military foot with China.

raja.mohan@expressindia.com