Opinion RJD-JD(U) alliance: Foes turned friends turned foes for Bihar elections

Lalu has told Nitish’s emissaries that while he is not a candidate for CM because of his legal troubles, and neither is any member of his family, he will not take Nitish’s name. The CM question, he says, must be addressed in the post-poll situation. The JD(U) has two concerns: One, Nitish wants to push ahead with the “development” plank to counter the “jungle raj” tag attached to Lalu; and two, they fear that Nitish may lose out if the JD(U) gets fewer seats than the RJD. Once the RJD commits to fighting the polls under Nitish’s leadership, however, even the Congress and other allies can put pressure on the RJD for Nitish as CM, irrespective of the JD(U)’s performance.

Lalu has been known to take jibes at Nitish. Is he the only credible face left in the entire alliance to stake claim for CM, he asks. This is where the outspoken RJD leader and staunch Lalu loyalist, Raghuvansh Prasad Singh, comes into the picture. Singh talks straight and tough and challenges Nitish to go it alone. Singh is ready with his tabulation of the RJD and JD(U) performance in the 2010 assembly and 2014 Lok Sabha elections. His logic is based on a tally of 145 versus 43 — Lalu and Nitish’s first and second positions in assembly segments in the last Lok Sabha polls respectively — and has become a headache for Nitish. Singh, who speaks with the backing of his party’s supremo, adds salt to JD(U) injuries by pointing out that the party’s 2010 showing was because it was part of the NDA. In response, the Nitish camp has asked for a third, neutral formula for seat-sharing.

In all this political drama, the Congress, which has been a pushover in past alliances with the RJD, has homed in on a Nitish option this time.

The Congress has not only announced its unilateral backing to Nitish, but also made clear that Nitish should be projected as the CM face. Lalu’s “why not rope in Jitan Ram Manjhi” ploy has backfired, with Nitish countering it with “Congress is on my side”.

Recently, Lalu sent his emissary and MLC Bhola Yadav to break the ice with Nitish. And Sharad Yadav is shuttling between Delhi and Patna to make the alliance happen in time for the Bihar polls. Indeed, he has not yet given up on the merger. On the other side, the Samajwadi Party’s Ram Gopal Yadav, with his talk of “signing the death warrant”, has almost sealed the debate. Mulayam Singh Yadav’s brothers were not in agreement over the proposed merger. Plus, there were fears of the regional parties losing their respective bargaining powers with the Centre. Why should the SP have been driven by the Bihar cause anyway, when the state’s two big players have still not settled things between them?

The alternative combinations, with floaters like Manjhi and Pappu Yadav engaged in hard bargaining, may force the Bihar biggies to take notice. They know that a three-way fight may give the NDA a walkover. The BJP has been keenly watching the chess moves between Lalu and Nitish.

In its insistence on parity, the JD(U) is also disturbed by the “chhota bhai-bada bhai” talk. Nitish tells his partymen that seniority is decided by the people, not by birth, in politics. Meanwhile, Lalu harps on his past record because he has not gone below 19 per cent of votes in any election, even when there was a surge for Nitish, and then Narendra Modi.

Manjhi has been trying to provide the fourth angle to the Lalu-Nitish contest, but Lalu is unlikely to choose Manjhi at the cost of losing Congress support. It is now left to the Congress to break the ice between Nitish and Lalu. Only the common enemy can bring them together, because despite their claims and postures on sharing an ideology, they have little in common with each other.

santosh.singh@expressindia.com