Opinion Final reckonings

If she still gets the money she badly needs for West Bengal,she would have Sonia Gandhi to thank for it. Politics is a dirty game in which there are no permanent friends or foes,just compatible interests. Mulayam Singh and Sonia Gandhi have been in a complex relationship these many years and he has reneged on her before. Yet he has a lot to teach Mamata about how to thrive in Indian politics where you are as powerful as your next big dole out from the Centre.

Yet,the manner of electing the President has shown that the process is somewhat demeaning to the public. The idea is that the President is elected by the people’s representatives since each MP or MLA vote has a weight equal to his or her electorate. Yet,in reality,this election is not by individual legislators as an electoral college but by parties and their leaders doing deals. Legislators are just puppets and despite the secret ballot,they will do what their party tells them to do. Indeed since the anti-defection law was put into the Constitution,individual legislators in India have less freedom than anywhere else I can think of.

The Election Commission has certain rules about what an incumbent can or cannot do once elections are announced. Such a stricture does not seem to apply in the case of Presidential elections. The party in power thus has enormous resources to bribe other parties to vote the way they choose. Hence the smart moves by Mulayam Singh Yadav and his just rewards. Of course,it will be argued that this is all proper and done through the Planning Commission but no one is fooled by all that.

Congress has been its usual risk-averse self and gone for overkill. Its aim was to secure not just a majority but an overwhelming vote for its candidate. This is because the Presidential election is rehearsal for gauging party strength in forming winning coalitions in 2014. Hence the desire to include in as many as possible and the delicacy with which Mamata Banerjee was treated despite her tantrums all these weeks. This strategy is obviously a winning one as far as the election of Pranab Mukherjee is concerned. Yet,it does not give us any guidance as to what will happen at the next general election. UPA-II was put together very late in the day after the Congress surprised itself by winning 200 plus seats.

In 2014,we will have a new situation. If,as one hopes the Prime Minister is successful in speeding up economic reforms,tackling the deficit and increasing the GDP growth rate,Congress may yet lose no more than 50 seats. One consolation that the PM has is that he has been abandoned by all his previous admirers. Things can only get better from here on since everyone has lost all hope.

But Congress is in suicidal mode. The calls yet again for Rahul to take over are a sure sign that as far as Congress veterans are concerned,the strategy will be to ditch reforms,return to old style socialism and try to do an Indira Gandhi election in 2014. The Presidential election will give a sense of euphoria.

If so,good luck and good bye Congress in 2014 and for a generation after.