Opinion Exit causes
In this defining year for Af-Pak operations,Kayani is keeping India at the centre of his plans
In the past few days,Pakistan has been seen to be gradually revealing its plan ahead of what has come to be known as the surge year in US President Barack Obamas Af-Pak policy. Having made it clear to the NATO top brass at Brussels that Pakistan does seek strategic depth in Afghanistan,the Pakistan army chief,General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani,is now looking to reap the benefits of the praise his army has earned for going after the Pakistan Taliban. He is urging the US towards a different approach with other Taliban elements like the Haqqani faction. There is also a message for the Haqqani group in it,that either it chooses to be an extension of Pakistani policy in Afghanistan or it gets clubbed with Al Qaeda,making its members prime targets in intensive operations planned ahead.
It is a tough ploy for the Pakistan army to pull off but the subtext is clear that in this defining year for Af-Pak operations,Kayani is keeping India at the centre of his plans. The aim is clear to drive Pakistan into a stronger position not to just limit Indian influence in Afghanistan,but also be able to preserve groups which American intelligence officials have termed as Pakistans strategic arsenal against India.
The entire calculation is being worked out in tune with the political clamour among key NATO countries to operationalise an exit strategy by next year. But while this may be the theory,the problem with counter-insurgency military operations like these is that victory is measured differently by each constituent. And in this case,for the US it will have to be measured in the context of the threat to its homeland.
Here is where there is a potential game changer. At least three major terror busts in the US,including Najibullah Zazi and three other young American men who were apprehended making plans for attacks on the US,had Pakistani links. And going by assessments of the Directorate of National Intelligence and the CIA,the biggest future terror threats to the US homeland come from training camps and groups operating on the Pakistan side of the unclear Af-Pak border.
While the White House may be looking to divest more responsibility to the Hamid Karzai regime and getting the Afghanistan National Army to shoulder more of the burden on the Afghanistan side of the border,it is being increasingly compelled to intensify American presence in Pakistan. This could be in the form of covert operations bear in mind the
recent revelation about private American security officials being killed near Peshawar or more drone attacks accompanied by ground action. Either way,there is almost no exit choice for the US when it comes to Pakistan.
So,one key element of the US strategy in this important year would be to act against groups like the Haqqani faction and others who are linked with Al Qaeda. This will be discomfiting for Pakistan but is a prime necessity for Washington. The lines between the friendly and unfriendly Taliban groups are more likely to blur on the ground when it comes to operations on the Pakistan side.
India,therefore,presents itself as a useful leverage for Pakistan and there is very good reason to believe US assessments,shared in detail with India,that a devious attempt to draw New Delhi into the conflict cannot be ruled out. In other words,another possible terror attack could leave India with very few options other than to actively consider an escalatory retaliation.
With a dearth of options being the bane of Indias policy against terrorism emanating from Pakistan,the decision to propose foreign secretary-level talks can be seen as a tactical effort to start with,in order to increase Indias manoeuvrability. It is well acknowledged that there is little distance to be travelled on the peace road with the Pakistan civilian leadership which is yet to demonstrate political credibility to take hard positive decisions on the India front. The fresh squabble between Pakistan Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi and his predecessor Khurshid Kasuri over the present government not being aware of the Musharraf proposals on Kashmir only poses more question marks over the surefootedness of the Zardari-Gilani regime when its comes to conducting a serious dialogue.
At the same time,it must be said that India has dragged its feet on reopening the conversation with Pakistan until it became almost unavoidable and necessary for reasons mentioned above. However,the disadvantage is that New Delhi has caught Islamabad on an upward curve because,having weathered the worst,the outcomes of the London Conference and weariness in Europe with the war have expanded Pakistans options. Its indispensable role,especially in the coming 15 to 18 months,allows it space to dictate the course of events for the moment. This holds particularly true when it comes to keeping India at a distance.
This,incidentally,may not be all that adverse a situation for India. Even if Pakistan has successfully kept India away from major regional meetings on Afghanistan,the strong bilateral relationship with Kabul and the well-nurtured bridges with various ethnic groups provide tremendous potential to New Delhi at a time of its choosing.
The more important question for India is Pakistan itself,just like it is for the US. The course of the Af-Pak conflict can change decisively in the next few months or more,one which is likely to become less about Afghanistan and more about Pakistan. Like never before,India will need to calibrate its strategy more closely with the US from here on because there is one fundamental objective on Pakistan that India and the US share protecting their respective homelands. Here is where the domestic question of troop pullout also turns on its head for Obama whose only way to exit the region fully is firm success on the terror front unless he would risk overruling his intelligence officials.
pranab.samanta@expressindia.com
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