Opinion Closing Khyber
A fortnightly column on the high politics of the Af-Pak region,the fulcrum of global power play in Indias neighbourhood.
There is no doubt that the recent closure of the Khyber Pass,the main eastern gateway into Afghanistan,marks a deepening of the many contradictions between Washington and Rawalpindi,where the Pakistan army is headquartered. Rawalpindis move was in response to the growing military incursions by the US-led international forces across the Durand Line,which divides Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Until now,the Pakistan army has acquiesced to the US drone attacks in the tribal areas that border Afghanistan. But the growing intensity of these attacks and the hot pursuit of militants taking shelter in sanctuaries located in Pakistan has angered Rawalpindi. Recent attacks by NATO helicopters killed 30 militants and a handful of security forces. Besides closing the Torkham gate at the Khyber pass,Rawalpindi appears to have encouraged the militants to attack the NATO convoys.
The Obama administration,on its part,is increasingly frustrated with Pakistans reluctance to go after the militants targeting Afghanistan. Washington is signaling that if Rawalpindi cant deliver on its promises,the US troops have no choice but to attack the militant sanctuaries in Pakistan. Many of the US and NATO attacks are focused on disrupting the Haqqani network in North Waziristan. While Pakistan sees the Haqqani network as a lever in defining a future political order in Kabul,the US sees the group as one of the principal threats to its military operations in Afghanistan.
Sceptics would say Washington and Rawalpindi will manage to find,as they always do,a way to paper over their strategic differences and continue with their tactical alignment in Afghanistan. Cynics will add that,for all its recent fulminations against the double dealings of Rawalpindi,Washington is a hostage to the Pakistan army. So long as it maintains a large force in Afghanistan,the US is completely dependent upon Pakistan for logistical support. Nearly 80 per cent of the supplies to US operations in Afghanistan have to come through Pakistan. With US-Iran relations in deep freeze,access into Afghanistan through its western borders is out of the question. The US has begun to develop the northern routes into Afghanistan,through Central Asia. This long and costly northern corridor is no substitute for the natural routes via the Khyber and Bolan passes through Pakistan.
While the tyranny of geography limits US options,the Pakistan army might be making the usual mistake of political over-reach. For domestic political pressure is mounting on President Obama to show some progress in Afghanistan. Fudging the reality of Pakistans double-dealing is no longer an option for Washington.
With its aid levels reaching nearly $2 billion a year and the Pakistani economy in a shambles after the great Indus flood,Washington is is betting that it does have some leverage. As they test each others nerve,either Washington or Rawalpindi will surely give in the coming days. Delhi would want to monitor closely the latest round of bargaining between Washington and Rawalpindi on the eve of President Barack Obamas visit to India.
Pashtuns are key
Pervez Musharrafs confession without contrition of Pakistans policy of nurturing anti-India terror groups is unlikely to shock policy-makers in Delhi. Nevertheless,South Block might want to pay attention to the generals thinking on how to stabilise Afghanistan.
For one,Musharraf agrees with Delhis view that there is no such creature as the moderate Taliban. There are Taliban and Pashtuns… As I have always said,all Taliban are Pashtun,but not all Pashtun people are Taliban, Musharraf declared. Asked for advice on Afghan strategy,Musharraf said the international community should reinforce the ancient Pashtun clans who are not ideologically aligned with the Taliban to govern Afghanistan and to fight the Taliban.
Both Kabul and Washington are reaching out to different elements of the Pashtun tribes. Until now,success has been limited. Yet,Delhi should heed Musharrafs advice that the Pashtuns hold the key to Afghanistans future and begin to engage them.
Tajik trouble
As Delhi takes a close look at the developments in Afghanistan,it should not lose sight of Kabuls northern neighbours,where the signs of trouble have become disturbing. Of special concern is Tajikistan,which is facing militant violence after a period of relative calm. Tajikistan shares a 1,300 km long border with Afghanistan and has security ties to India. Delhi must do what it can to help Dushanbe end its internal turmoil.
raja.mohan@expressindia.com
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