Opinion Canary in a coalmine

The BJP has,no doubt,started its stopwatch for 2014. A party that taunted the Congress with “Atal versus ?” in the early 2000s now thinks it best to move away from a strategy centred on a PM-in-waiting and exploit the question mark as a tactic to keep the flock together. Acutely conscious that it has not even been a year since a deeply anti-political and telegenic “movement of anger” got TRPs by disparaging Parliament,the BJP in its wisdom has decided to take a leaf out of that book and bring Parliament to a standstill — a little bit of Anna within the House to keep its support base charged. The BJP knows that if a debate on the CAG report on coal takes place in the House,it would necessarily introduce some nuance that would complicate matters and damage the binary of pro- and anti-corruption that works so well for it outside Parliament.

Most importantly,the BJP is in power in two crucial states that will be going to polls in the next few months — Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh. So it is not an entirely bad idea to play the enraged opposition and deflect attention from any localanti-incumbency sentiment. The BJP’s only hope is to subsume everything into a righteous “national” debate with a “corrupt” Centre. Coal mining is a good issue to target the PM with,as it is mining that has also hurt the BJP in Karnataka. By making it difficult to enact any legislation,not only does the BJP manage to get away with not taking a stand on tricky issues like the land and food bills,but it also makes the UPA appear to be at a standstill. It may help the BJP to create a noise on as many issues as it can,away from its core Hindutva/ Modi-related matters,especially as its index of coalitionability is lower than that of the Congress — even now.

The Congress,meanwhile,seems to have climbed down from its high horse of “hum vipaksh mein baithne ko tayyar hain” (we are ready to sit in opposition),and appears worried as the information age,with all its fire power,novelties,difficulties and risks,presents a new set of challenges. As it scrambles to shore up its defences,one gets the feeling that it is more worried about responding to Washington Post writers than on getting its core functions right. After all,why blame the BJP for not allowing the government to pass legislation,when it has to sort out its complex political message on the land,food and FDI bills,which its own ministers cite as crucial? The party has only about four sessions of Parliament left to get its act — and bills — together.

For the others,the going is a little more interesting as they sit back and watch the Congress and the BJP spar. Parties supporting the UPA and the NDA enjoy the advantages of the small and the fleet-footed — they are prompt in getting their messages clearly across to their respective constituents. They are keen not to be seen as pushovers,but they are eager to maximise gains over the next two years. The Samajwadi Party is a weather vane for the others,as it walks the thin line with great skill — it appears to keep all options open but is careful not to topple UPA 2; it realises that geniality towards the Congress has helped it in the polls and that to be seen as a destabilising factor is unlikely to yield any electoral bonus. The SP template is followed almost faithfully by parties like the TMC and even the JD(U). For instance,Nitish Kumar’s forte,it seems,is to make comments on Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi,while staying in the alliance with the BJP in the state,as it yields benefits and keeps him relevant to the big picture.

The election of the president and the vice-president,in fact even of the deputy chairman of Rajya Sabha,was expected to redraw political equations nationally. But as the UPA was able to muster support and get all its candidates elected,this proved to be an anti-climax for those in the opposition who were looking to pick up straws on how the 2014 coalitions could be built.

Now,by using coal as a symbol,the BJP hopes to use corruption as an all-encompassing slogan to rally support in 2014. Whether it will be able to sustain the pitch and how the rest of the opposition will carve its space will be interesting. Still,what we have witnessed may be a pointer to the election campaign for 2014. For the ruling coalition,it may just be the canary in the coalmine.

seema.chishti@expressindia.com