The hardest thing to understand about Rahul Gandhis declaration last week that he plans to play a larger role in politics and government is his timing. Why now? He could have become prime minister in 2009 had he wanted but chose instead to wait till he had won his political spurs with victorious campaigns in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. Things did not work out as he may have hoped.
If Rahul has been reluctant to play the role of a real leader,the electorate has shown itself to be even more reluctant to hand him a real mandate. When his energetic campaigning in the Bihar assembly elections two years ago brought the Congress Partys seats down from 13 to four,his cohorts said it was because he had not really campaigned in Bihar. Wait till you see what happens in UP, one of his toadies told me last November. So I did and watched carefully as Rahul put his heart and soul into the campaign. To no avail,alas,so he did one of his
vanishing tricks.
He is given to disappearing every now and then but this time the vanishing act lasted so long that even a certified loyalist of the Gandhi family like Salman Khurshid had to admit in this newspaper,two weeks ago,that Rahuls political role has been mostly a series of cameos. Was it this that prompted Rahul to suddenly assert himself? Was it a little lecture from Mummy? Was it the economic slowdown? Was it the growing strains in the United Progressive Alliance? Whatever it was,his timing could not be worse.
Not just because the political fallout could have dangerous consequences but because the Indian economy has been left in such bad shape by the man who will now be President. The Prime Minister cannot be absolved of all blame but,as the western media has suddenly discovered,his role was more that of Rahuls regent than Indias prime minister so he had limited political authority. So very limited that ministers supposedly close to Sonia Gandhi (or Rahul) openly defied him.
It has only been in recent weeks,since Pranab Mukherjee moved out of North Block,that the Prime Minister has shown signs of asserting himself once more. Nothing has happened yet by way of definite measures to stop Indias investment climate from sliding towards junk status,or the rupees ominous slide against the dollar,but there have been some reassuring noises from the Prime Ministers office.
This is why Rahuls timing is so bad. If the economic downturn is to be halted,the Prime Minister is going to need to use all the time he has available to concentrate on pushing through urgently needed economic reforms. He will not be able to do this if he is pushed back once more into the role of being Rahuls regent and this is exactly what will happen when Rahul steps into a larger role. Even without playing a larger role,Rahul,in the dynastic traditions of the Congress Party,is already the second most important leader in the country. So imagine what will happen if he decides to become a minister or deputy prime minister?
When he speaks of playing a larger role,it has to mean in government and not in the party because he already plays as large a role as possible in Congress affairs. Whenever there are elections he is personally involved in selecting candidates. In election campaigns,he is the star campaigner. And,as for strengthening the partys organisational structure,he has very clearly been the person in charge of this task albeit without making a visible difference. Besides,there is little room for an expanded role in a political party that has long been the Gandhi familys private limited company. As courtier-in-chief,Mani Shankar Aiyar,recently admitted,the Gandhi family is the Congress Party.
If this is fine for the Congress Party,it should be fine for us but my humble suggestion to Rahul is that since he has waited so long to claim his political inheritance,he should wait a little longer. If the economy goes any further downhill,there could be no political inheritance left to claim by 2014. The only man who can stem the rot is the Prime Minister because he knows exactly what needs to be done. He will not be able to do anything if Rahul joins his government. His mere presence in the Cabinet will establish an alternative power centre and further diminish the Prime Ministers powers in the eyes of his ministers.
Rahul must know that as the Congress Partys heir apparent he can hardly be seen in a secondary role to the man who has acted as his regent. If he wants a larger role,he must be prepared to be king. Is he prepared?
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