Opinion An island still divided

However,Rajapaksa’s victory portends a number of worrying scenarios for the island nation. First,the president is likely to view the broad margin of victory as signifying the people’s approval of his policies. He has been accused by civil rights activists of misusing the military and police to trample on the constitutional liberties of citizens. For instance,on Wednesday,the Sri Lankan military surrounded Fonseka’s hotel and sparked allegations that the president was trying to intimidate the ex-general and prevent him from contesting in the upcoming prime ministerial elections. (The continuing state of emergency in the country gives the president immense powers,which is a worrying sign for the future of rule of law there.)

Second,in the face of Rajapaksa’s decisive victory,the rainbow coalition of opposition parties,which had half-heartedly backed Fonseka,will be unable to act as a check on Rajapaksa.

Third,Fonseka’s victory in most parts of the minority strongholds of the north-east will not endear the Tamils and Muslims to Rajapaksa. The interesting point to note is that by backing Fonseka,the minorities tried to reduce

Rajapaksa’s victory margin. Only 18 per cent of registered voters turned up in Jaffna — of which two-thirds reportedly have voted for Fonseka. In the east,turnout was higher,between 50 and 60 per cent,and a majority backed Fonseka. The low voter turnout in the Tamil and Muslim bastions of the north and east is a worrying sign that the minorities continue to feel isolated.

A boycott by the minorities would not be surprising; both candidates — Rajapaksa and his erstwhile commander-in-chief,Sarath Fonseka — have been accused of human rights abuses of civilians in the north-east during the conflict with the Tamil separatist Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. Tamils and Muslims,who account for 25 per cent of the electorate,were not,in the end,key swing voters.

Fourth,and most worrying,is that Rajapaksa’s 14-point 2010 manifesto makes no mention of rights,poverty reduction or minority rights but seems to envisage top-down Singapore-style state-led economic development. The manifesto,an expanded version of his November 2005 Mahinda Chintana (The thinking of Mahinda) manifesto,is subtitled: “A brighter future,with the promise to put Sri Lanka in a prominent position in Asia and the world,and work towards a political solution to the ethnic question within a united Sri Lanka.”

Rajapaksa’s brighter future involves an economic transformation of the country into a “Wonder of Asia” and to “develop our motherland as a Naval,Aviation,Commercial,Energy and Knowledge hub,serving as a key link between the East and West”. But a $2.6 billion loan from the IMF to stave off a balance of payment crisis comes with the compulsion that the budget deficit be slashed by four per cent in 2011. This has obvious implications for government spending when the country needs to urgently undertake reconstruction in the north and the east.

Rajapaksa’s political solution is disturbing,too,because it does not seem to envisage decentralisation: “a unitary state,not to be divided” is one of the 14 points. Over a quarter of a million Tamils were locked up in camps after the May 2009 “victory” of the Sri Lankan military against the LTTE. The continuation of the military occupation of the north-east coupled with economic deprivation could spark a spiral of communal tensions and discontent.

In the 2005 elections,Rajapaksa promised peace,more jobs,and improvement of living standards. His detractors would say that he broke his promises by plunging the country into war with the LTTE,which sent young men and women to their deaths and worsened the country’s economic situation.

But his champions would argue that he has kept his promise of peace by ridding the island of the LTTE,and is now working to accomplish his pledge to jump-start the economy.

Regardless of which view one chooses to believe,one thing is clear: Rajapaksa has used and will continue to use the might of the state to accomplish his goals. The state of emergency continues and the size of the police and the military remains intact even though the war is officially over.

The writer is a fellow at the Centre for Policy Research,Delhi

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