Opinion A pretty big deal

The interim nuclear deal reached between Iran and the P5+1 is a historic breakthrough,but many domestic

and regional obstacles threaten its longevity. Hardline factions in Iran are concerned about the potential results of a long-lasting deal that could alter the anti-Western nature of the regime,while other countries in the region,such as Israel,find the Islamic Republic’s ambitions to be dubious. Iran’s moderate president,Hassan Rouhani,has to navigate a number of impediments during the six-month agreement in order to set the stage for a potential long-term deal.

The agreement may not be ideal for the West or Iran,but isn’t that the definition of a good compromise? The deal is “limited,temporary… and reversible”,which is true in regard to sanctions relief and Iran’s ability to restart its nuclear activities. Six months is a short testing period for each side to examine the other’s commitment— a genuine and much-needed trust-building exercise. If this initial period is successful,then a more permanent deal could be struck. But the trial period will not take place in a vacuum. There are many domestic and regional obstacles that could derail the process and hamper the development of a long-term deal.

The major domestic obstacle for Rouhani’s moderate administration is the opposition of hardline factions. Iran’s radical conservatives fear that any attempt to make peace with their enemy could result in tectonic shifts in the ideological foundations of the regime,which see the West as an enemy of the values preached by the Islamic Republic.

But for the time being,criticism seems to be coming from semi-independent conservative factions driven by ideology and a culture of resistance. The country’s senior political elite,including the supreme leader,seem to be united in praising the agreement

as a victory. In a letter to Ayatollah Khamenei that summarised the accomplishments of his first 100 days,Rouhani announced that the West acknowledged Iran’s right to enrichment and,as a result,sanctions will be eased. “Achieving what you have stated is worthy of praise and appreciation

of the nuclear team and other practitioners. This could be the basis for other thoughtful initiatives,” Khamenei wrote in his reply.

The interim agreement as interpreted by Iranian officials allows the country to enrich up to 5 per cent,provides some much-needed economic breathing room by easing sanctions

and reduces the chance of a military strike by Israel. However,as indicated by some of his recent anti-Western rhetoric,Khamenei reserves the right to rain on the diplomatic parade if he senses that the ideological and security foundations of the regime are in danger. Rouhani has been able to keep Khamenei content,and extremist factions at bay because of his biggest source of political capital — the popular support of millions of Iranians. Rouhani acknowledges the value of popular support — an asset his predecessor lacked — and will do all he can to maintain it.

If the Iran deal leads to a more permanent rapprochement between the US and Iran,it would be a cause for concern for Israel and other regional powers,such as Saudi Arabia. In the eyes of many regional powers,Iran remains a revolutionary country with hegemonic aspirations. Any long-term agreement could perpetuate its ambitions,which may threaten the region. For the Saudis,if Iran is no longer spending its resources to combat the US,it will be better positioned to dominate the Persian Gulf — a historic rivalry for regional supremacy between the two countries,recently intensified due to political instability in Bahrain.

It is also feared that the ongoing negotiations will give Tehran a free hand to expand its support for the Syrian government and other US adversaries throughout the region,such as the Hezbollah. And Israel still views Iran’s nuclear ambitions as an existential threat. Israel believes the agreement gives Iran too much freedom to continue with its enrichment efforts and that it is simply a tactic used by Tehran to buy time. It is suspicious of Iran’s diplomatic rhetoric and believes it to be nothing but a “smiley campaign” launched by Rouhani to fool the West.

For the time being,Rouhani seems to have the support of the White House. Obama is discouraging the US Congress from imposing any additional sanctions by highlighting their potential damage to the deal. The ultimate success of the interim agreement depends on how the US and Iran manage to handle the adversaries of a potential long-term deal.

The writer is Iran Programme Officer at the Institute for War and Peace Reporting in Washington DC.