Zimbabwe, c8217;est moi

For a man so deluded about his past achievements, Robert Mugabe has a painfully clear understanding of his prospects at the polls.

For a man so deluded about his past achievements, Robert Mugabe has a painfully clear understanding of his prospects at the polls. His rivals8230; 8220;may win some seats8221;, he said recently, 8220;but they cannot win the majority. Impossible.8221;

Few would gainsay him. Zimbabwe8217;s opposition movement is more vocal than in past years, but more divided. Its voters can expect systematic intimidation this Saturday8230; Constituencies have been redrawn in favour of the ruling Zanu PF party8230; There is not even a pretence of fair election coverage in the state media, and8230; voting, for millions, will take second place to the more urgent business of survival. This is why Mr Mugabe8217;s election forecast is likely to be accurate. It is a tragedy for Zimbabweans; it is also8230; a colossal failure of international diplomacy.

Surrounded by sycophants, Mr Mugabe may actually believe his claim to be a freedom fighter. He is in fact a wrecker on a par with Kim Jong Il. He has turned Africa8217;s second-strongest economy into a nation dependent on food aid8230; Life expectancy has tumbled from 60 years to 358230; Unemployment stands at 80 per cent, and inflation, at more than 100,000 per cent, is the highest in the world8230;

The man responsible has shored up his domestic position with home-grown thuggery and Soviet-style kleptocracy. By razing the slum dwellings of some two million opposition supporters in 2005, he disenfranchised them8230; But he is also dependent on continued foreign acquiescence8230; His crimes have been ignored; his anti-colonial bombast has been endorsed, even though half a century out of date. Britain has tried not to dignify Mr Mugabe8217;s ranting with a response. Last year8217;s EU-AU summit was supposed to vindicate this strategy by letting others lead the condemnation8230; In the event, just four leaders of the European Union spoke up, and the silence from the African side was deafening.

There are glimmers of hope that Mr Mugabe may win this election and yet lose power. His own former finance minister, Simba Makoni, is running against him. His best-known rival, Morgan Tsvangirai, is drawing large crowds8230; The election commission may even find the courage to defy the Zanu PF strongmen. Whatever happens on Saturday, the time has come to stop appeasing the monstrous Mr Mugabe.

Excerpted from 8216;Robert Mugabe: a bad man in Africa8217;, a leader in The Times, London, March 26