Why this wet spell is raining good news for fields in the north

‘‘This rain is good for rabi crop, especially wheat, mustard and gram,’’ says Dr J S Samra, Deputy Director General (Natural Resource Management), ICAR.

Other experts agree the weather conditions this time have particularly favoured wheat, oilseed and vegetable farming, with minimum temperatures hovering just below normal conditions—by two-three degrees—over parts of northwest India from January 27-31.

But the bigger news is there’s more coming, with Met Dept officials in New Delhi forecasting more rain after a temporary lull of two days.

‘‘The crops are now in an active growth stage as all sowing has been completed. There is forecast of more rain in the days to come,’’ said a Met official, adding that the rainfall has been good for soil moisture.

For farmers, the timing couldn’t have been better.

The sowing of wheat is complete in all states except Uttar Pradesh, with most of them, including Bihar, Assam, Jammu & Kashmir, Madhya Pradesh and Punjab having increased the cultivation spread—a total of 265.81 lakh hectares as against 263.82 lakh hectares last year.

Says Punjab’s Chief Agriculture Officer Dr Rajinder Singh Pandher: ‘‘The general public is shivering, but when it comes to crops, we are happy the temperatures are low. Last year, temperatures rose around this time resulting in loss of yield.’’

But ICAR’s Dr Samra also has a word of caution for farmers: ‘‘There could be a sudden rise in temperature, which is not good for the crops.’’

The other danger, of course, is that of excess. Some states have already reported a damage of 20 to 25 per cent in rapeseed and mustard crop and 10 to 12 per cent in linseed crop.

‘‘We have crossed the normal average rainfall for the months of January and February, but it has not been so heavy to damage the crop,’’ says Dr S S Hundal, a senior weather expert from Punjab Agricultural University (PAU) in Ludhiana.

‘‘Normally, when farmers irrigate their field, they let around 50 mm to 75 mm of water remain. Rainfall in January has been around 48 mm and till now, February has seen 23 mm of rain. So there will be no damage to crops,’’ he says.

Dr Lal Singh Brar, head, Department of Agronomy and Agrometrology, PAU, says rains, even if in excess, may not damage the wheat crop—at least in Punjab. ‘‘Wheat sown in this part of the state is of the short variety and chances of damage are less,’’ he says.

But he’s not so sure about mustard.

‘‘Mustard is nearing the flowering stage and at some places, pods have formed. The rain will not damage it. But in places like Hisar and areas of Rajasthan, mustard is ripe. It is here that rains at this stage can hit the crop,’’ he says.

Met Department officials point out that additional rainfall would be good for crops but only as long as it isn’t accompanied by strong winds and hail.

As for the Agricultural Statistics Division’s wheat production estimate for 2004-05—73.03 million tonnes—Dr Samra has the last word: ‘‘We will watch how the weather behaves.’’