Which way will Ganderbal swing?

If there was ever a swing constituency in Kashmir, it is this small township on the outskirts of Srinagar.

If there was ever a swing constituency in Kashmir, it is this small township on the outskirts of Srinagar. More than an individual addition to the seat tally, a win here is sought by parties 8212; especially the NC and PDP8212;- for its overarching symbolic significance as proof of their electoral sway over the Valley. And with the upcoming Assembly election, Ganderbal is poised for yet another pivotal contest.

The constituency has been a traditional stronghold of the National Conference NC, with members of the Abdullah dynasty always choosing it for their personal contest. In that sense, Ganderbal is to the Abdullahs what Uttar Pradesh8217;s Amethi or Rae Bareli is to the Gandhis. The NC8217;s legendary founder, Sheikh Abdullah, fought and won with a huge margin from Ganderbal in1977 while his son Farooq Abdullah contested in the subsequently elections of 1983, 1987 and 1996 and won resoundingly on each occasion. However, in 2002, the Abdullah magic seemed to have thinned when newly-elected party president and chief ministerial candidate Omar Abdullah lost his maiden contest from the constituency.

More than the rout in other parts of the state, it was the loss in Ganderbal that finally ended the NC8217;s determined bid to retain power in the state. The party8217;s loss of face here was seen as the people8217;s own vote of no confidence against it. What made this even more humiliating was that Omar was defeated by a relatively obscure candidate of the newly-floated Peoples Democratic Party, Qazi Muhammad Afzal.

Now in 2008, Ganderbal looks set for another decisive contest. Will the NC, which has decided to field Omar again , reclaim the constituency? Will the PDP repeat its victory? Or will the Congress, which has decided to field Ishfaq Ahmad Sheikh, the son of former minister late Sheikh Jabbar, or even an Independent candidate annex the constituency? At the moment, it is hard to tell, with the current mood in the constituency leaving any possibility open.

While Afzal, the PDP8217;s dark horse in 2002, is likely to be haunted by the anti-incumbency factor and allegations of corruption, there is no conspicuous goodwill for the NC either.

The PDP might be tempted to seek a replacement for Afzal because of his now-proven political incompetence. And perhaps, sensing that his party may be forced to look beyond him, Afzal has stopped short of denying his reported links with Ghulam Hassan Mir, an expelled NC leader who recently floated his own party.

With or without Afzal, the PDP8217;s biggest plus point in Ganderbal is the status of 8216;district headquarters8217; conferred on the constituency during its rule. The party can very well project this as a creditable achievement, a proof of its role in the fulfilment of a long-term demand of the people of the constituency.

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However, in outlining the contours of the electoral contest, the role of the recent surge in separatist sentiments in the Valley can hardly be discounted. Even though Ganderbal has never been known for any strident secessionist credentials, it is located in the vicinity of Srinagar and is unlikely to remain untouched by the anticipated poll boycott in the city.