Which way to Centre?

The south voted Congress, but the grand old party lost.

Ever since, there was a sense that elections in these large and politicised states were the litmus for the 8220;national mood8221; and who would rule New Delhi. In recent times, after the Mandal Report fragmented parties and the vote in UP and Bihar, their peculiar and now diminished position in deciding who rules India has been discussed, but Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Delhi which send 72 MPs to Lok Sabha not quite as much.

A closer look at the facts over the past 15-18 years reveals some surprises. Since the early 8217;90s 8212; the BJP 8220;surge8221; years, when they formed governments in Rajasthan twice, under Bhairon Singh Shekhawat in Rajasthan, 1990 and then 1993, Madhya Pradesh Sunderlal Patwa, and Delhi Madan Lal Khurana 8212; look at who was ruling at the Centre. A weakened, minority government but one run by the Congress under Narasimha Rao, supremely out of favour in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Delhi.

In the 1998 elections, months after the BJP-led coalition took power at the Centre, the mood swung in the Onion elections, where price rise and the scarcity of onions and tomatoes became dominant issues. The BJP lost power in Rajasthan Ashok Gehlot became chief minister and Delhi Sheila Dikshit began her long innings; and in Madhya Pradesh Digvijay Singh bucked anti-incumbency warnings. It appeared that there might be a Congress revival. But barely a year later the BJP-led NDA was returned to power in a snap general election, with Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Delhi voting for the saffron party. Subsequently, Chhattisgarh was carved out of Madhya Pradesh and made a separate state, with the Congress8217;s Ajit Jogi as chief minister.

Five years ago, in 2003, the NDA8217;s term in office in Delhi was winding down and elections in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Delhi were held tantalisingly close to the general elections. December 2003 saw the Congress wake up to a rout in three out of these four states Delhi voted Congress. However, as the BJP advanced general election to cash in on this mood and of India Shining, the results shocked not just pollsters but political players as well some say, even the Congress.

Again, as these four large states brace for polls, plenty is being speculated on how the result will impact the ruling UPA8217;s timing of the next general election. Past polls suggest that any attempt at correlation may be misleading.

The disconnect is a reflection of how much politics has changed over the past two decades. In all these states, to date, the contest is largely bi-polar, a direct face-off between the Congress and the BJP. While these two parties continue to remain the pivots of all governments that have completed their terms and also those that haven8217;t even the two United Fronts would not have been possible without the Congress8217;s support, they are far from central to deciding who will form the government at the Centre. So, even if these 72 seats indicate which of these two parties is winning, it8217;s far from being an indicator of the alliances needed to conquer Raisina Hill. In 2004 too, the Congress barely won one-sixth of the seats in these four states, but the situation in the rest of the country was very different.

But another reason why these assembly results have been misguiding could be the way parties adapt and adjust to them to gear up for the national polls. The shocker that December 2003 delivered to an out-of-power Congress in these states led to the party reinventing itself for the big polls to follow. Realising that in states where it was a direct contest between itself and the BJP, the smaller parties were more likely to cut into its votes and hence trump the Congress, it went all out to forge alliances with parties and leaders, some of whom had been part of the NDA just months before or opponents in other states, like the Left. Among these the Lalu-Paswan alliance with the Congress in Bihar, the alliance with the TRS in Andhra Pradesh and the six-party Democratic Progressive Front, with the DMK, PMK and the Left were remarkably successful.

Therefore, in elections where there are several issues, parties and views, the relevance of these Hindi-belt elections as weather vanes even if they are at about the same time as the general election is much reduced. One can safely say that since 1993 the results here have signalled the opposite of what is likely to happen in the Lok Sabha elections.

Interestingly, Mizoram, also going to polls with the bigger states, seems to be a better signal of the shape of things to come and trends in the rest of India. While the Congress8217;s tally in the 40-member assembly here has shrunk, from 16 in 1993 to 12 in 2003, the growth of seats for the Mizoram National Front has been notable in this phase. The rise in the number of regional parties too has been much more a reflection of what8217;s happened nationally. So if you are desperate to get a preview of things to come in our complex polity, travel to Aizawl.

seema.chishtiexpressindia.com