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Journalism of Courage
DECEMBER 26: The hijacking of flight IC-814 is not a normal hijacking of the type that we have experienced in the past. Everything points to meticulous planning and clear military-type aims, strategy and discipline. Hijacking of aeroplanes has been undergoing some fundamental changes over the decades. The last 15 years have witnessed a sharp decline in hijacking world wide, but they are now increasingly undertaken by religious extremist groups.
In order to deal with the hijacking of IC-814, not only to successfully retrieve the innocent passengers and the crew unharmed from the clutches of terrorists but also from a longer-term perspective, it is important that we assess the likely motivations behind the hijacking.
Kargil had exposed the flaws in Pakistani thinking and strategy which could only deepen the desire for revenge against India. General Musharraf is finding it increasingly difficult to generate legitimacy and acceptability within his own country in spite of the relief that people expressed on the change in regime this October. But more important is that if the international coalition against transnational terrorism continues to build up, as it seems to be, then Pakistan would find it extremely difficult to pursue its covert war against India without paying a much higher price.
Theapparent contradiction that a terrorist act would be motivated to generate an image of reasonable cooperation in resolving the terrorist act disappears when it is remembered that the initiative at present rests with the hijackers and their masters. The hijackers can be blamed by the Taliban and Pakistan, but they would undoubtedly get sanctuary in Afghanistan.
Little action would be possible against them now that they are in Kandhar. Therefore, passage of time, while increasing the agony of the nation, is likely to rapidly decrease the possibility of the hostages being physically harmed. In fact, at the time of writing this, the hijackers and their masters would have far more to lose by any further act of violence. But this does not imply that we should lower our efforts for the release of the hostages and the aircraft.
The escalation of terrorism in Kashmir in targeting military and para-military targets in dramatic, almost suicidal, attacks was meant to sustain terrorism at a higher profile in tryingto demonstrate that the terrorists could attack at will even against military installations. In reality, it was also a demonstration of desperation at the tide swelling against aggression and terrorism. The strategy is apparently to raise the profile of terrorism and fulfil the claim of 8220;many more Kargils8221;. The infiltration into Kashmir slows down in winter. But obviously the urgency to keep up terrorism in the name of Kashmir has only increased.
More important has been the coalition building up for a concerted international response to transnational terrorism, especially one motivated by religious extremism. The United States has focused on Osama bin Laden as the core of this terrorism against the US. Revision of estimates of oil and gas reserves had already reduced the importance of Afghanistan as the future supply route. Taliban8217;s own performance had discouraged countries from even recognising the regime in spite of the great enthusiasm they inspired when they entered Kabul three years ago.International opinion aga-inst the Taliban has been building up essentially because of their extremist methods.
Its reliance on narcotics and terrorism has only increased during these three years. Sanctions against the Taliban regime now represent a new dimension where the UN had moved from being a passive observer of transnational terrorism to playing a more active role.
The well-planned hijacking, apparently sought to get the aircraft and hostages into the sanctuary of Afgha-nistan as early as possible with maximum hostages, including some women. Kandhar has been the epicenter of terrorism and transnational crime for quite some time. It was also the area from which the Taliban storm rose five years ago sweeping away yesteryear8217;s terrorists like Hikmatyar. Resolution of the hijacking would inevitably provide a degree of legitimacy to the Taliban. Much will depend on how far Musharraf and the Taliban want to push. This is already happening with the UN having to be involved in the rescue process in whichthe Taliban and Musharraf8217;s Pakistan are appearing to be sweet reasonableness itself.
At the time of writing, it appears there will be an insistence for India to be part of the UN team before any worthwhile negotiation will take place.The demands of the hijackers are few at the moment, but likely to increase, especially since the UN cannot be seen to fail, but more importantly depending on how their masters wish to play the terror-diplomacy.It is likely that Pakistan will be brought into the process more directly for it to claim the role of a sober helper. The hijacking certainly internationalises the Kashmir issue. But this should not worry us.
Kashmir was internationalised five decades ago. The issue is not internationalisation but what is the substance of the process. In this case, when we negotiate even within the UN framework, we would only be trying to protect the interests and well-being of innocent citizens of India as much as eliminating and fighting terrorism in Kashmir is.
It would appearthat the major aim of the hijackers is to obtain maximum legitimacy, essentially by forcing India to negotiate with the hijackers on foreign soil within the framework of a third party. This would be claimed to press for removing the pressure on the Taliban and Pakistan. India, of course, will need to ensure that our desire to deny legitimacy to the Taliban, and by extension to Musharraf, and the transnational terrorism they represent, should not come in the way of the safety and freedom of the hostages.
Air Commodore Jasjit Singh is director, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi
