Wheat: Production is the problem

When the government first woke up to the 8220;shortage8217;8217; of wheat in February this year, they blamed it on the new amendments to the Agricultural Produce Marketing Committee APMC Act, which allowed private companies to buy wheat directly from the farmers. The word then was that there was enough wheat in the country, though not in government godowns. To beef up the buffer stock, the government announced imports.

After a round of checks, it turns out that private companies have at best procured 1.5 million tonnes of wheat, significantly lower than the 4-5 million tonnes estimated initially. On the other hand, the advance estimates now suggest that wheat production itself has dropped from around 71 million tonnes to 69 million tonnes. In fact, trade sources peg it even lower, at 66 million tonnes.

Subsequently, the government went in for a slew of measures8212;ranging from the 38 lakh tonnes import to allowing private imports and imposing stockholding limits8212;would force the stored wheat into the market. However, so far as prices go, nothing seems to have helped substantially.

With a production shortfall seeming to emerge as the indisputable cause for the high prices, the government has now begun addressing the production problem. They are also considering the possibility of making state-wise zonal plans to boost productivity.

The reality check has also forced an acknowledgement that the target of 109 million tonnes, set for 2020, is unattainable. Following the peak production of 1999-2000 crop season, there was growing confidence that India would be able to produce 78 million tonnes by 2005-06, and top it by 30 million tonnes in another 14 years.

8220;The last five years have been witnessing a downward production swing, from 76 to 65 million tonnes. This shows the vulnerability of wheat production,8221; says S Nagararaj, chairman of Protection of Plant Variety and Farmers Rights Authority in his paper 8216;Can India produce enough wheat even by 2020?8217;

Nagaraj has identified a host of issues that could have contributed to the production-freeze. Each of them needs to be addressed individually, he says:

8226; The wheat buffer stock depends on the production of Punjab and Haryana, as the turnout from eastern Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh8212;the other wheat-growing states8212;continues to be sub-optimal since some of the technologies popular in Punjab and Haryana have not even taken off.

8226; Soil health is a major issue, but something that policy-makers are still oblivious to. 8220;The soil is losing micronutrients which are no longer being replenished,8217;8217; says C D Mayee, former commissioner of agriculture. Punjab, specifically, has reported deficiency in zinc, manganese and sulphur, all of which hamper productivity.

8226; Researchers have also found that in major wheat-producing areas, population has grown at 2.5 per cent per year, necessitating the retention of additional grain by farmer himself.

8226; The temperature during grain filling period in the Northern states has been higher for the last five crop seasons in comparison to 2000, when record wheat production was achieved. High temperatures have been interfering with the process of grain filling, leading to fall in yields.

8226; There was a spurt in production and distribution of certified seed between 1995 and 2000. Since then, it has tapered off. There is no growth in certified seed production. Designer varieties, hybrids and stock improvement are being considered as a measure to address this vacuum.

Though all these measures are long-term, some of it needs to be translated into policy soon if wheat production is to be brought back to previous levels.