What the World is Reading

GDP grew by 3.9 per cent in the United States, but The Economist 8216;America8217;s vulnerable economy8217;, November 16 still forecasts a recession. In a few months, its analysis suggests, output and jobs could be shrinking. The housing market is still in trouble, and oil prices remain incredibly high. The leader argues that this is bound to be reflected in consumer spending. The weaker dollar may help exports but it is unlikely to be enough to make up for a drop in consumer spending. The economies of Europe and Japan, while resilient, are of course likely to bear the brunt of more expensive exports on account of stronger currencies. Yet, the magazine cautions against global gloom. Emerging economies will be less vulnerable to possibly decreased exports. 8220;Most emerging economies are in healthier shape than ever. They are no longer financially dependent on the rest of the world, but have large foreign-exchange reserves 8212; no less than three-quarters of the global total. Though there are some notable exceptions, most of them have small budget deficits another change from the past, so they can boost spending to offset weaker exports if need be.8221; And, America could have more troubles piling up on account of the weakened dollar: 8220;As international investors wake up to the relative weakening of America8217;s economic power, they will surely question why they hold the bulk of their wealth in dollars. The dollar8217;s decline already amounts to the biggest default in history, having wiped far more off the value of foreigners8217; assets than any emerging market has ever done. The vigour of emerging economies is good news for the world economy: for its growth, it has much less need of a strong America. The bad news for America is that this, in turn, may mean that the world also has less need of the dollar.8221;

Time November 26 considers the 8220;best countries for business8221;. It rates them by the World Economic Forum8217;s Global Competitiveness Report, which 8220;tallies 113 factors that contribute to an economy8217;s competitiveness 8212; a buzzword that roughly boils down to how well a country is positioned to squeeze efficiency out of its businesses and attract companies and investment from abroad. Components of the resulting Global Competitiveness Index range from the quality of a nation8217;s roads to the independence of its judiciary to the incidence of tuberculosis to how easy it is to hire an engineer.8221; Highlights from the list: the US is top of the list of 50 countries, and India is at 48. China is ranked 34th.

The December issue of the National Geographic, which also has an essay on dinosaurs by John Updike, visits Bethlehem in the run-up to the Annapolis Middle East peace conference and, of course, Christmas. It shows the changing demography increased Christian emigration and topography Israel8217;s controversial wall and checkpoints of the area to argue that the road to peace has to pass through the town.

Meanwhile: Steve Coll takes stock of the crisis in Pakistan in the New Yorker. BusinessWeek agrees that American consumers will have to tighten their belts.