Continuing its winning streak,the Sensex registered a gain of 4.4 per cent last week. Last Friday it closed at 10,803.86 points. The markets performed well last week. In the short term the Sensex is expected to rise by another 10 per cent. But huge volatility of 10-15 per cent is expected both pre- and post-election, says Kishor Ostwal,chairman and managing director,CNI Research.
On the macro-economic front,the wholesale price index fell a little and stands at 0.26 per cent for the week ended March 28,2009 as compared to 0.31 per cent in the previous week. The Index of Industrial Production IIP for February stood at a negative 1.2 per cent year-on-year. The corresponding figure for February was 9.5 per cent last year. The IIP number was,however,not as bad as Dalal Street had expected.
All the sectors performed well last week. The biggest gainers were Realty and Consumer Durables which grew by 13.7 per cent and 13.6 per cent respectively compared to the previous weeks close. According to Ostwal,Realty developers were able to reduce their inventory by selling at 25 per cent discount which will provide them with some working capital. Moreover,investors are gaining confidence in realty stocks as they are under-owned. The expectation of further rate cuts is also building up. The consumer durable sector is growing on account of declining interest rates.
The sectors that registered the least gains were Information Technology and FMCG,which rose by 1.8 per cent and 1.2 per cent respectively. The FMCG sector being the most defensive sector is not expected to improve substantially. If the economy revives and demand improves,only then is significant improvement expected in this sector, says Ostwal.