Washington,We have a problem

An agreement on Kashmir could come as early as April of that year,Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf told top US Congressional leaders in 2007,informing them that he and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh were on the verge of an agreement. Musharraf appreciated Singhs flexibility,relating the PMs personal invitation to him to attend the SAARC Ministerial in New Delhi in April,a cable said. Musharraf explained his decision to decline the invitation,saying that there is too much euphoria at present. If I went to Delhi,but we didnt sign an agreement,the people would think we had failed, he said. Musharraf said that he has conveyed two options to New Delhi: either PM Singh comes to Pakistan before April to sign an agreement,or the two hold a signing ceremony at the SAARC Ministerial. The cable added that Musharraf said that An agreement should not land like a bombshell8230; Leaders must prepare their publics,as he is doing in Pakistan.

While Musharraf acknowledged that remnants of the al-Qaeda remained hidden in the mountainous border region of Pakistan and Afghanistan,he denied his government was encouraging the militants. I do not believe that Mullah Omar has ever been to Pakistan, he added,apparently contrasting this to Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri,who may be ensconced in the mountains along the Frontier.

After Musharraf resigned in 2008,the US Ambassador to Islamabad,Anne W Patterson,pressed Asif Ali Zardari to grant him immunity from prosecution. We believed Musharraf should have a dignified retirement, Patterson said. However,both the US and Pakistan Army chief Ashfaq Parvez Kayani were worried that Zardari would renege on his word.

December 2007

No one seems to know how much aid were giving: US

The cable noted that CSF Coalition Support Funds were not reaching those who were actually fighting the war on terror. The funds went directly into Pakistans general treasury from there we have no visibility on their final destination or application. 8230;From President Musharraf down to the average Pakistani private,no one in Pakistan seems to have a clear grasp of the amount of US military reimbursement assistance actually provided, US Ambassador Anne Pattersons report said.

8230;The program,as it is currently being implemented,simply is not meeting US or Pakistan counter-terrorism objectives.

The cable sought a reform of the system,including approving reimbursement only after adequate assurances.

Other cables recorded General Kayani as saying the money,including 26 million for barbed wire and 70 million to defend against non-existent Taliban warplanes,had been diverted into government coffers. Kayani was worried that his army was seen as a force for hire,and punished American diplomats for allegedly siding with India.

One dispatch in February 2010 talked of the Pakistani military and intelligence establishment punishing the US Embassy in Islamabad for its perceived bias towards India. The military had delayed visas for diplomats,blocked import permits for armoured vehicles,sabotaged a security contract and was stopping and detaining embassy vehicles,the dispatch said.

JANUARY 2009

Zardari raises BJP,says wont allow attack on Pak

Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari told the US that he would have no option but to respond militarily if India chose to launch an attack following the 26/11 terrorist attacks,but promised that his government would not allow non-state actors to dictate state policy. He Zardari reminded the Ambassador that it had only taken a phone call from the US to ensure that Pakistan did not oppose the US/India civil nuclear deal at the Nuclear Suppliers Group, the cable said. But he said there was no way that he could let India attack Pakistan.

He also talked of a report in India indicating that Muslims were among the least prosperous in its society. He said that the Bharatiya Janata Party BJP was trying to whip up anti-Muslim sentiment. Morever,there were plenty of extremist groups in India that could have assisted Lashkar-e-Taiba, Patterson said in the cable.

February 2009

Patterson to Richard Holbrooke,before his first visit as Af-Pak Special Envoy

Militancy has spread from border areas to Punjab

The cable said Pakistan is not a failed state but the challenges it faced were dire. After eight years of military rule,Patterson said,the civilian government was working,so far successfully,to re-shape civilian-military relations. Although not a failed state,Pakistan needs international help to stabilise civilian rule.

However,the cable added,extremism was no longer restricted to the border areas in Pakistan and was spreading to the Punjab region,and raised concern that Pakistan military had too few forces. We are seeing young Punjabi men turn up in FATA and Afghanistan as fighters recruited from areas of southern Punjab8230; The phenomenon is spreading into northern Sindh as well8230; The bad news is that the militants are driving the agenda; the Pakistan military has too few forces to fight too many battles at one time, she said.

On simmering Indo-Pak ties,the cable said: 8230;the military/ISI faces the need to re-evaluate its historic use of proxy tribes/militant groups as foreign policy tools. Although the conventional wisdom says that Mumbai closed the door on Kashmir discussions,there is no doubt that Pakistan believes tackling the Kashmir issue remains the key to regional security.

The key will be whether the military/ISI is ready to turn the Mumbai suspects over to civilian law enforcement8230; Kayani,in particular,wants to avoid a reckoning with his past leadership of ISI8230;.

February 2009

Pak producing n-arms faster than anyone else

Our major concern is not having an Islamic militant steal an entire weapon,but rather the chance someone working in GOP Government of Pakistan facilities could gradually smuggle enough material out to eventually make a weapon, Patterson wrote. She was particularly worried about a stockpile of highly enriched uranium kept for years near an ageing research rector,supplied by the US in the mid-1960s.

Britain too was concerned. Patterson told US diplomats in September 2009 that the UK has deep concerns about the safety and security of Pakistans nuclear weapons.

The dispatches talked about Pakistan producing nuclear weapons at a faster rate than any other country.

March 2009

May have to persuade Zardari to go: Kayani

General Kayani again hinted to Patterson on March 10 that he might,however reluctantly,persuade President Zardari to resign if the situation sharply deteriorates. He mentioned Asfundyar Wali Khan leader of the Awami National Party as a possible replacement. This would not be a formal coup but would leave in place the PPP government led by PM Gilani,thus avoiding elections that likely would bring Nawaz Sharif to power. We do not believe Army action is imminent. We do believe Kayani was laying down a clear marker so that,if he has to act,he can say he warned the US in advance and gave us ample opportunities to pressure both sides to back down. Kayani is trying to leverage what he considers predominate US influence over Zardari,instead of seeking a direct confrontation that could provoke an unhelpful civil-military clash.

Kayani indicated to Patterson that he didnt think much of Nawaz Sharif. He made it clear regardless how much he dislikes Zardari,he distrusted Nawaz Sharif even more.

Patterson also remarked on Sharifs comments thanking the US for arranging to have Kayani appointed. The best thing America has done recently, he said.

The fact that a former prime minister believes the US could control the appointment of Pakistans chief of army staff speaks volumes about the myth of American influence here, Ambassador Patterson noted afterwards.

Patterson talked of ISI DG Ahmed Shuja Pasha highlighting to her his concerns about Zardaris alleged corruption on the flight to the US 8230;We have multiple sources demonstrating Army complaints about Zardari. Kayani believes the US has the most influence over Zardari,and he knows we are Pakistans most important ally.

2009

Zardari fears coup,says Kayani will take him out

Zardari feared a fresh army coup and was concerned that Kayani might take me out,US Vice-President Joe Biden reported to former British prime minister Gordon Brown during a meeting in Chile in 2009. Brown said he thought it was unlikely. Zardari also told the US Ambassador that he had instructed his son Bilawal to name his sister,Faryal Talpur,as president in the eventuality of his assassination. Frank about the strength of the Taliban,Zardari told Biden,Im sorry to say this but we are not winning the war against extremists.

September 2009

Pak will always support Lashkar,no matter what

Pakistans Army and ISI are covertly sponsoring four militant groups,including LeT,Afghan Taliban,and its allies Haqqani and Hekmatyar networks on the western Afghan frontier,and would not abandon them for any amount of US money,the cables said. 8230;there is no chance that Pakistan will view enhanced assistance8230; as sufficient compensation for abandoning support to these groups,Patterson wrote.

Patterson also urged the US to reassess Indias role in Afghanistan and the growing Indo-US relationship. We need to reassess Indian involvement in Afghanistan and our own policies towards India,including the growing military relationship through sizeable conventional arms sales,as all of this feeds Pakistani establishment paranoia and pushes them closer to both Afghan and Kashmir-focused terrorist groups while reinforcing doubts about US intentions, she said.

A cable ahead of Kayanis visit to Washington said he had been utterly frank about the consequences of a pro-India government coming to power in Kabul. The Pakistani establishment will dramatically increase support for Taliban groups in Pakistan and Afghanistan,which they see as8230; an important counterweight.

2009

US forces helping hunt for Taliban,coordinating strikes

Small US special forces teams helped hunt down Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters and coordinate drone strikes,the leaked cables reveal a fact that has never been publicly acknowledged. The number of soldiers involved were just 16 in October 2009,with the first men being a special forces team of four soldiers deployed at an old British colonial fort in the northern half of the tribal belt,in September 2009,so as to help Frontier Corps paramilitaries carry out artillery strikes on a militant base. Their job was to provide intelligence,surveillance and reconnaissance support,general operational advice and help set up a live satellite feed from American drones flying overhead.

The Pakistanis are increasingly confident that we do not have ulterior motives in assisting their operations, says a cable. Pakistani bureaucrats,the cables said,supported the drone attacks,viewing them as a solution to a problem.

2009

Huge stake in your success,India told Holbrooke

While public perception has been that India is not keen to support Obamas Af-Pak envoy Richard Holbrooke,the leaked cables have revealed that New Delhi welcomed him and wanted him to succeed.

At a meeting with Holbrooke in February 2009,the then Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon told the envoy that India would support him publicly,and would include in public statements that India has a huge stake in his success.

The Indian government was pleased with Holbrookes appointment,Menon stated,adding We have a huge stake in your success in this role. He agreed with Holbrookes assessment of the Afghanistan-Pakistan problem that you cant solve one without the other.