War is ending,but8230;

...Sri Lankas real challenges lie ahead

Seventy thousand people have been killed and countless others injured in Sri Lankas civil conflict; thus,as the LTTE appears to succumb to a sizeable,battle-hardened military fighting with improved weaponry and small-unit commando tactics,any end to violence is welcome. However,that should not obscure the fact that the real challenges lie ahead. Having already established control over the Eastern province where elections were held recently,if the Sri Lankan government notches up more victories by forcing the LTTE separatists out of their last foothold in the north of the country,how President Rajapakse faces three challenges will determine the future for peace in the island.

The first challenge is to build sustainable communal and ethnic harmony after half a century of disharmony. This involves reducing tensions between the Tamils on the one hand and the Sinhalese and Muslims on the other. Sixteen years of violent separatism by the LTTE has created deep fissures in the relationship between the majority Sinhalese,who form 74 per cent of the population and the Tamils who make up 12 per cent of the 20 million Sri Lankans. In addition,the Muslims,who were thrown out of Jaffna by the LTTE in 1991,are demanding to return to their homes. Muslim leaders including a cabinet minister have called for resettling the community and returning its lands and property. But such a policy is fraught with the possibility of intensifying tension between Tamil and Muslim Sri Lankans.

Rajapakse needs to do three things: ensure devolution of governance,establish a responsive political system,and promote more harmonious relations between the communities. In Sri Lanka the roots of the conflict,the Tamil demand for a federal state,needs to be addressed immediately. Sinhalese political elites have to create maximum devolution for the Tamil minority,which India too favours. As long as LTTE supremo Prabhakaran was the self-proclaimed sole spokesman for the Tamil population,Sinhalese nationalist parties like the JHU and JVP refused to countenance any move towards federalism,fearful that it would be a prelude to carving out a Tamil state comprising the north and east of the country. The opposition to federalism from Sinhalese nationalists may be less strident if Prabhakaran is no longer a player at the negotiating table.

Political scientist John Mueller in Policing the Remnants of War

argues that the establishment of a coherent and responsive political system and disciplined military and policing forces is central to engendering and maintaining civil peace. Rajapakse must ensure fair elections,impartial government and smooth devolution. Witch-hunts,looting,murders and large- scale dispossession cannot be countenanced.

The second challenge for Rajapakse is to rebuild a faltering economy in an era of bear markets,global recession,high unemployment,and low FDI flows. Several studies have found that enduring ethnic peace can be provided only through economic revival. Rebuilding in the north and east is of urgent importance in a post-conflict situation,a fact recognised by Sri Lankan military commanders,one of whom said that only an economic solution would win the hearts and minds of the people. In this endeavour,the international community has much to offer in the reconstruction programme.

The third challenge is to tackle suicide and other attacks by the LTTE without descending into an all Tamils are terrorists mentality. That would require strong political will leading an impartial set of state agencies including the police,military,bureaucracy and the judiciary. This seems almost impossible for a country where the conflict has reduced many institutions to hollow shells. For instance,President Rajpakse bypassed a constitutional council and appointed several judges on the recommendation of the Chief Justice,thereby eroding the institutional autonomy of the

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judiciary. In a study of several ethnic conflicts,political scientists James Feron and David Laitin observed that what was described as ethnic violence looked very much like gang violence with no necessary ethnic dimension; all that was required was the availability of mobilisable thugs. The government should see future attacks by the LTTE this way.

But will President Rajapakse be able to meet these challenges? A president whose original backers were the Sinhala nationalists could be considered unlikely to institute devolution and treat non-Sinhalese minorities on an equal footing. His previous actions,riding roughshod over civil society stringent laws policing the operation of NGOs and the judiciary are not indicative of future moves to nurture democratic institutions.

On the other hand,elections were held in the eastern province where a key Prabhakaran aide,Karuna transformed his breakaway Eastern faction into a recognised political party TMVP,and himself into a member of parliament. If separatists can become parliamentarians,then we should also wait to see if a Sinhalese-nationalist supported president who has used a military solution against the LTTE,shifts to a political and economic solution for the Tamil and other minorities in the country. That is the only chance for a durable peace in the embattled island.

The writer is at the Centre for Policy Research,Delhi expressexpressindia.com