The killers of Karachi

A slow-burning war for control of one of the great economic engines of south Asia has burst back into life with a ferocity not seen since the mid-1980s,when Pakistans army acted to quell clashes on Karachis streets.

The killings are the bloody dividends of a long-running struggle between rival political parties with roots in the ethnic Pashtun and Mohajir communities. This summer,the violence has hit new heights. Shootings and grenade attacks in labyrinthine slums and hillside shanty towns claimed more than 300 lives in July,one of the worst monthly tolls on record. The deaths took the total killed in Karachi this year to more than 800,according to the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan,a non-governmental organisation.

New murders occur daily. Asif Ali Zardari,the unpopular president,has proved powerless to pacify the countrys biggest city the heart of its 160bn economy,the seat of its stock exchange and the home of an important Arabian Sea port.

Rehman Malik,the interior minister,earned widespread ridicule when he played down the significance of the mayhem by suggesting 70 per cent of the murders were committed by angry girlfriends or wives. Karachis politically instigated killings may seem parochial by comparison but they are a symptom of deeper conflicts that may ultimately play a greater role in shaping Pakistans destiny.

Like no other city,Karachi distils the mix of gun politics,ethnic tensions,sectarian strife,state weakness,militancy and organised crime that makes the whole country so fragile. It is these trends that will determine whether Pakistans hesitant journey from military rule to a semblance of democracy will deliver greater stability or deeper fragmentation.

Karachi was born on an unprepossessing mudflat in the Indus river civilisation then known as Sindh. Over the centuries,swirling currents of migration have washed in ancestors of virtually every Pakistani community. But it is the explosive demography of the past 50 years that has created todays pressure cooker. Karachis population,450,000 people at independence in 1947,is now estimated at as many as 18m.

The clearest narrative in the present tangle of troubles is a variant of the age-old struggle between incumbent and challenger. Battle lines in city politics are marked by flags strung from lamp posts and mobile phone masts,staking the contenders territory. Fluttering banners in red,white and green belong to the incumbent the Muttahida Quami Movement,the citys dominant political force. The MQM draws the core of its support from the Mohajir,descendants of Urdu-speaking migrants who flooded in from India during Pakistans birth pangs and formed the nucleus of an aspiring middle class. The partys strength is reflected in the Sindh provincial assembly,where it occupies 28 of Karachis 33 seats.

Crimson flags flying across poorer neighbourhoods belong to the challenger the Awami National party. The ANP draws the bulk of its support from a growing influx of Pashtun migrants from regions bordering Afghanistan. Many work as labourers,security guards or drive multicoloured buses emblazoned with dazzling mandalas,peacocks and lions.

Complicating the picture further,Zardaris ruling Pakistan Peoples party has its roots in Sindh. To shore up his majority in Islamabad,the president is constantly embroiled with his Karachi rivals in revolving-door coalition politics. The latest wave of killings erupted last month after the MQM quit Zardaris coalition. Violence has tended to spike in the city when the party is in opposition in the capital,which underscores its relevance on the national stage. As always,each party accused the other of igniting the tinderbox.

The violence reflects a more fundamental struggle: a multi-sided war for control of votes,land and protection rackets. Shadowy alliances between power-brokers,slum landlords,drug barons and gun-runners sharpen its deadly edge.

With the state unable even to provide reliable electricity,expectations for justice are low. Outgunned and undermanned,the police are afraid to arrest assassins protected by powerful politicians. We need the nod from the government to start looking for the people who are behind the targeted killings, says a security official. Were not getting it.

The government response to the current outbreak has a repetitive feel. As usual,Islamabad has ordered paramilitary rangers to sweep neighbourhoods in search of perpetrators. Talks have been held with city politicians. Rewards have been offered for mobile phone pictures of suspects. But most believe it is only a matter of time before the next bout of killing.MATTHEW GREEN

2011 The Financial Times Limited