Talking of interests

Chinas readiness to talk to India on Afghanistan,therefore,is a step forward. These bilateral consultations come as Afghanistan prepares for multiple transitions in the next two years. For one,the US is preparing to end its military occupation by 2014 and is handing over responsibilities to Afghan security forces,whose effectiveness is widely doubted. Second,next years elections are likely to see a new leader replacing President Hamid Karzai,who has been Afghanistans voice for more than a decade. Third,there are multiple channels in play,trying to promote a political reconciliation between the international community and the Taliban. Together,the three factors make Afghanistans future an extremely uncertain one.

The India-China dialogue is part of a wider process in which all of Afghanistans neighbours are talking to each other. It is built on the recognition that potential chaos in Afghanistan will unleash forces of violent extremism that threaten the security of both India and China. While this conversation is welcome,Delhi should have no illusions that India is a priority partner for Beijing in dealing with Afghanistan. Beijing sees itself as a great power addressing a regional issue by consulting with relevant parties. Beijing is presenting the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation,a regional forum built by China for more than a decade,as the main multilateral mechanism to cope with the changing dynamic in Afghanistan. And Beijing has every reason to rely on Rawalpindi to secure its growing interests in Afghanistan. Geography and strategic ambition make the Pakistan army the main external actor shaping Afghanistans future. Dialogue with India might have its value,but partnership with Pakistan remains absolutely central to Chinas Afghan calculus.