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Journalism of Courage
Dozens of people were killed and wounded in a suicide-bombing at a funeral north-east of Baghdad this week. It was the third such attack in a fortnight,casting fresh doubt on whether Iraqs government and armed forces can keep the country secure as the Americans start to go home. The prime minister,Nuri al-Maliki,is anxious to ensure a smooth transition of power in Iraqs provinces after elections two months ago. And he still has to hold a potentially explosive poll to elect a new provincial council in Kirkuk,a disputed and ethnically divided city on the fault-line between the Arab parts of Iraq and the autonomous region of Kurdistan.
Thanks to the diving price of oil and a tighter budget,Mr Maliki has also had to stop recruiting new police. Plans to fold former insurgents into Iraqs regular security forces have slowed down too,raising fears that the Sons of Iraq,the mainly Sunni tribal militias who turned the tide against jihadists linked to al-Qaeda in the past year or so,may become rebels again.
Al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia,as the Iraqi wing of the jihadist movement calls itself,retains a foothold in Mosul,Iraqs biggest northern city,where bombings and assassinations are relentless. Patches of Diyala province,north-east of Baghdad,remain violent,as tensions rise between Kurds and Arabs along its northern border with Kurdistan,where this weeks suicide-bomb went off. In Januarys elections,the previously disfranchised Sunni Arabs won a lot more seats in the provincial councils of Nineveh of which Mosul is the main city and Diyala. But this has yet to dampen the insurgency in either province. Allegations of electoral fraud in Diyala have delayed confirmation of results,and give insurgents more excuse to make trouble.
Southern Iraq,in particular the oil-rich city of Basra,is completely transformed from its condition a year ago,when Iraqi and American forces,at Mr Malikis instigation,attacked and defeated the Shia militias which had been allowed to run the show under the watch of British troops in the area. This success helped a coalition of parties,led by Mr Malikis Dawa,to win landslide victories in provinces across the south two months ago at the expense of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq ISCI,a rival Shia movement.
But there are worries that ISCIs militias,known as the Badr Brigades,with ties to Iran,may yet stoke up trouble to undermine Mr Maliki. Nor is it clear whether the Mahdi Army loyal to Muqtada al-Sadr,a radical Shia cleric also backed by Iran,will continue to lie low or plot a return to violence. Only a year ago it held sway over large tracts of the south. It is not yet out of the pictureand could stir strife again.
Such fears increased recently when the main British base outside Basra was hit by a rocket for the first time this year. The 4,100 British troops there will be replaced in the next few months by American ones. A ceremony is to take place in a few days to mark the switch of authority from a British to an American general. But the lingering presence of foreign troops in the south may stir up the hitherto dormant militias,particularly as American forces adopt a higher profile on the streets than their British counterparts. The Basra base is already teeming with Humvees and imposing machines called Mine Resistant Ambush Protected MRAP vehicles.
A lot depends on whether Basras new provincial council can get big building projects off the ground,improve public services and help hundreds of thousands of jobless young men and women back to work. We need a sewage network,tap water,a better electricity supply, says Mustafa Atier Risan,a newly elected councillor who backs Mr Maliki. The health service is worse even than in the poorest countries. Education,he added,was dire. But something positive in Iraq has begun.
Six years after the Americans toppled Saddam Hussein,Iraqs experiment in democracy is still moving shakily ahead. New political leaders are starting to gain legitimacy in the public mind,despite the presence of American soldiers in the background. When the occupying forces withdraw from city centres to bases outside them,as they are due to do by the end of June,Iraqi leaders may look more in charge of their own country. Moreover,the religious parties responsible for much of the sectarian conflict that devastated Iraq from 2005 to 2007 are less prominent,after scoring badly in the local elections.
But politics often still looks venal. Power and money may yet count more than votes. In the province of Karbala,south of Baghdad,an independent candidate who won 13 per cent of the vote,more than anyone else,by running on a secular anti-corruption platform was expected to become governor. But he has been stopped from doing so,because of election rules that favour big parties. Struggles between rival parties still hurt Iraqs interests as politicians score points over each other in Parliament,causing a stalemate when it comes to voting through vital legislation such as a long-awaited oil law.
Iraqs next big event is a general election at the end of the year that is likely to change the shape of the coalition government,currently a bad-tempered mix of Shia Arabs,who hold most posts,and Sunni Arabs and Kurds,who are minority partners. Mr Maliki,a Shia Arab,is likely to bid for a second term as prime minister. No one is sure,whoever wins,that the defeated parties and their leaders will peacefully accept the peoples verdict.
The Economist Newspaper Limited 2009
