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Split wide open

Theres a new kind of brinkmanship in Tamil Nadus political equations.

After much pulling and straining on both sides over seat-sharing in the upcoming Tamil Nadu assembly election,the DMK-Congress alliance,at least for a while,seemed to have been ripped apart,as the DMK pulled out of the UPA government. The Congress had started its bargaining with demands that old seat-sharing deals be re-negotiated substantively,and the DMK,for its part,needled the Congress by being extremely generous with allies like the PMK,reducing the seats left for the Congress.

This is a new kind of brinkmanship in Tamil Nadu,which has long seen a simple electoral see-saw between the DMK and AIADMK and their respective constellations of smaller allies like the PMK and MDMK. The Congress,which has a marginal presence in the state despite the big talk of building its own cadre,has taken victorious turns with both parties,and had a durable relationship with the DMK since 2004. But now,it appears as though this election may not play out to script. Partly,this is because the DMK,badly bruised by the 2G investigation,wants to retrieve some sense of agency. Partly,the Congresss swelling ambitions make it difficult for it to work out seat-sharing details. There seems to be a visible disconnect within the Congress,between those who want to thrash out an electoral arrangement,and the others who are busy sending feelers to other potential allies,and playing hardball with the DMK. Ghulam Nabi Azads back and forth between the state and Delhi was clearly fraught,and reflected the state of play.

The DMK knows only too well that this is a high-stakes election. It is confronted by a formidable opposition Jayalalithaa and her crew of allies,including Vijayakanths DMDK,is no pushover. The party is fighting incumbency,and dealing with its own internal rifts,and the sense of uncertainty about who will succeed Karunanidhi. This restiveness among all political fronts only points to the fact that this may genuinely be an all-bets-off election. The DMK,till the 2G case unsettled its top leadership,appeared to have a well-worked strategy to garner votes it has a record of welfare schemes that win it support. But will that tide it through this time,given the patient coalition-building by opposing forces? It is unclear what shape the alliances will finally take. But for the DMK,which has since 1996 tended to keep tranquil relations with the party at the Centre,this is certainly a new phase.

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