Softly,softly

One man; one vote; one forlorn hope?...

According to its chief executive,Donald Tsang,Hong Kong has reached another critical juncture in its political development. A reform proposal unveiled by his government on November 18th aims to increase the level of democracy substantially in 2012 when Mr Tsangs successor is chosen and a new legislature elected. Pro-democracy politicians are far from convinced.

This is Mr Tsangs second attempt at trying to persuade legislators that he and,more critically,Chinas leaders,mean to fulfil promises made at the end of British rule in 1997 that Hong Kong would move towards universal suffrage. His previous reform package was voted down by the legislature,known as Legco,in 2005 as too timid and lacking a clear timetable for universal suffrage.

Since then,Chinese and Hong Kong officials have tried to sweeten the deal. Two years ago China announced that Hong Kong could have universal suffrage for the election of its chief executive in 2017 and of Legco in 2020. This was far later than the democrats wanted,but the first clear timetable. Now Mr Tsang has tweaked his 2005 proposals.

The problem,as democrats see it,is that China has not defined what it means by universal suffrage. Nor does Mr Tsangs new consultation document. Suspicions are widespread in Hong Kong that China will insist on maintaining some aspects of the current political system in order to ensure that outspoken critics of the Communist Party have no chance of being elected as chief executive or of dominating Legco. Half of Legcos 60 seats are currently returned by functional constituencies in which certain professions and industries select their own legislators. These tend to be disdainful of the pro-democracy camp. The chief executive is chosen by an election committee stacked with similarly pro-China leaders of business and the establishment.

Mr Tsangs proposal would add ten new seats to Legco in 2012. Five of them would be returned by direct elections and the other five by directly elected members of district councils,which are local consultative bodies. The election committee would be expanded from 800 to 1,200 members. But there has been no promise to abolish functional constituencies,either in 2012 or beyond. Undemocratic in its constitution,Legco will nevertheless put up a fight.

The Economist Newspaper Limited 2009