Orange no more

Razom nas bahato,nas ne podolati (together we are many,we cannot be defeated).” The leap of faith anthem that hypnotised Kiev’s Independence Square in 2004 will not be heard even if Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko challenges the close result of Sunday’s presidential run-off in a sorry imitation of the Orange Revolution. For most western Ukrainians — responsible for the 2004 upheaval that nullified Viktor Yanukovych’s rigged victory,putting pro-West Viktor Yushchenko in office — voting was reduced to choosing the “lesser of two evils”. With Russian-speaking,pro-Moscow eastern Ukraine backing Yanukovych again,nationalist,Ukrainian-speaking,pro-Europe western Ukraine reluctantly attempted to prevent a “step backwards” to the country’s initial post-Soviet past.

Kiev may be volatile for a while,but it’s a remarkable comeback for a man ridiculed as a “Red factory boss” and “Moscow’s lackey”,with a criminal record for assault and robbery in youth. However,prior to the run-off,both candidates had moderated their positions — Tymoshenko softening her anti-Kremlin stance; Yanukovych remaking his image as “independent” of Moscow.

The fact remains that Orange leaders failed to deliver on their promises: economic leap,reduced corruption,integration with the EU. Instead,President Yushchenko and Prime Minister Tymoshenko — leaders of the revolution — immediately fell out; stamping the last five years with government infighting and political inertia. An economy hard-hit by the recession wasn’t going to be patient. Despite keeping its distance this time,Moscow — whose Black Sea fleet remains in Sevastopol — will be pleased,as a Kiev under Yanukovych will likely return to Russia’s “traditional sphere of influence”,along with the gas pipeline to Europe. If 2010 is the referendum on 2004,it’s reflected in the political apathy of disillusioned Ukrainians. Roman Kalyn,who turned the revolution’s slogan into its anthem,reportedly writes love songs now.