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This is an archive article published on October 25, 2012

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Could the upswing in housing finance bode a larger revival? Too soon to tell

Could the upswing in housing finance bode a larger revival? Too soon to tell

With the demand for housing showing signs of an unexpected upturn,the National Housing Bank,the regulator for the sector,expects this fiscal to end with a growth rate of 20 per cent for loans disbursed by housing finance companies and banks. Compared to the 17 per cent growth rate in 2011-12,this bodes a turnaround. At a disaggregated level,the numbers are rising the fastest for loans in the Rs 15 lakh to Rs 30 lakh segment. Since the sub-Rs 10 lakh segment is growing at a lower pace,the middle income segment may be growing faster than even 20 per cent. The chief factors driving up this rate are the incentives offered by banks and housing finance companies in the shape of lower rates of interest and withdrawal of processing fees on loans. The minor easing of prices of homes that has taken place in tier II and III towns like Jaipur,Indore and Kochi as per the latest quarterly NHB Residex,which tracks prices of housing stock in 20 cities,is also a factor. Among the major towns,prices have softened only in Hyderabad.

What makes the revival significant is that it began to shape up even before the festival season,generally the time when Indians plan to buy homes. Though other sectors of the economy are yet to offer clear signs of growth,the resurgence of housing finance is a leading indicator of revival in the financial sector. Some of the rise is,of course,a rub off from the demand for gold,which,along with housing stock,offers a sense of security to investors in a period of perceived high inflation.

Whether or not this growth can be spurred to higher levels will depend on the cues from the RBI in terms of its decision on rates at the end of this month. It will also depend on the possibility of a generalised price correction. The stickiness of prices points to the lack of housing stock that has kept demand largely undisturbed for real estate companies even as the economy decelerated sharply. For instance,within the National Capital Region,the Residex shows housing prices have eased in the Noida region,Gurgaon and Ghaziabad,besides the newly developing apartment zones of East Delhi where higher supply has sharply cut back prices. Other zones,including the poorer ones,have not been so lucky.

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