Meltdown time

The 20th century is the first century for which how much energy were getting from the sun is no longer the most important thing governing the temperature of the Arctic. Thats from a new study in the journal Science of how cyclical changes in the North Poles orientation towards the sun enabled 2000 years of cooling in the region. However,this long-term trend suddenly reversed through sustained warming that first began in the 50s and peaked in the last 10 years apparently responding to increased levels of greenhouse-gas emissions. Naturally,the worry is the pace at which this warming has affected polar ice caps. The rising temperature will invariably affect the Arctic ecosystem,may result in accelerated loss of land ice and,crucially,push sea levels even higher.

Accompanying this report are worrying projections by WWF that,in parts,the seas may rise by more than a metre by 2100. The 2007 IPCC reports estimates are now universally thought low; most recent estimates have an average upper limit around 82 cm. This forecast follows a study undertaken by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in April that posed a bleak scenario: Arctic sea ice disappearing entirely,for the first time in history,within the next 30 years. This couples with the fear a melting Arctic would result in billions of tonnes of methane being released from frozen soils,pushing temperatures even higher,feeding a vicious cycle. Cumulatively these factors will affect conditions beyond the planetary poles.

At the third World Climate Conference in Geneva last week,scientists presented this bleak picture and the point was made that it is now finally understood changes in the Arctic are accelerating global climate change. Ban

Ki-Moon asserted: scientists have been accused for years of scaremongering. But the real scaremongers are those who say we cannot afford climate action. As the countdown to Copenhagen begins,the science is now unanswerable.