It takes two to rumba

The American Congress may go on to lift the ban on travel to Cuba by other Americans,and perhaps liberalise some trade. But there is a battle in Congress over the issue. For those who favour change,8221;the key issue is to understand that the embargo is not an instrument for the democratisation8221; of Cuba,argues Robert Pastor,who was in charge of relations with Latin America in the Carter administration. Others say the embargo should remain until Cuba frees its political prisoners.

In his new role as a blogger,Fidel Castro said that while he did not question Mr Obama8217;s sincerity,the measures did nothing to dismantle the 8220;genocidal8221; embargo. And he scorned Brazil and other allies who have called for Cuba8217;s readmission to the Organisation of American States,saying that his country had no desire to rejoin the body from which it was suspended,at the United States8217;s behest,in 1962.

Raúl Castro,who replaced his elder brother as Cuba8217;s president last year,has said he wants 8220;dialogue8221; with Mr Obama. The two governments have co-operated in the past about migration and drugs and could do so again. But on the main issue that divides them-Cuba8217;s communist system and its suppression of human rights-they remain as far apart as ever.

On taking over,Raúl Castro raised the hopes of long-suffering Cubans when he first promised 8220;changes of structure and concept8221; in the centrally-planned economy and then pledged to improve people8217;s spiritual and material lives. But his first year in office disappointed. He took timid steps to turn over more land to private farming,and gave more leeway to some small businesses,such as private taxi drivers. But Cubans have seen little or no improvement in their daily grind.

After several years of growth,due largely to subsidies from Hugo Chávez8217;s Venezuela,the economy has been battered by hurricanes,lack of credit and a plunge in the price of nickel,its main currency earner apart from tourism. Workers are being sent home,workplace snacks and meals cut and even the traditional perk of beer,rum and government-issue cake for weddings and a free hotel room for the honeymoon was recently eliminated.

But Raúl has consolidated his power. Most dramatically,he shuffled the cabinet last month,purging Carlos Lage,who for the past 15 years had been de facto prime minister and economic supremo. Along with him went Felipe Pérez Roque,the foreign minister. Mr Lage 57,and Mr Pérez 44 symbolised for outsiders and some Cubans a hope of reform and of the transition to a Cuba without the Castro brothers.

That made them dangerous. In classic Stalinist fashion,they apologised for errors. Not only had they succumbed to the nectar of power and ambition,but also the enemy outside built up their hopes with them, Fidel said of the two men,whom he had promoted. His statement meant that he,rather than Raúl,took the blame for sackings which were unpopular with younger party members,says Mr Pastor,who visited Cuba last month.

Their fall from grace came as a shock to Cuba-watchers and has prompted conspiracy theories. The latest official version-leaked this month to foreign journalists without corroborating evidence-rings true. It centres on their ties to Conrado Hernández,a Spanish-Cuban businessman arrested earlier this year on suspicion of spying. Mr Hernández was a close personal friend of Mr Lage. Together with Mr Pérez and their families,they would meet at Mr Hernández8217;s ranch for roast pig,rum and dominoes. Talk,spiced with irreverent jokes,would turn as it does in many Cuban homes to how the Castro brothers were slowing needed reforms. These conversations were secretly recorded by Mr Hernández-and by Cuban intelligence.

In all,Raúl Castro8217;s purge swept away eleven ministers,including most of the economic team. Their replacements are Raúl8217;s people,including several generals from the armed forces which he led for half a century. They will be charged with implementing a new law on 8220;perfecting businesses. This requires all state firms to act autonomously and adopt capitalist management and accounting,but without privatisation or adoption of other market mechanisms. This system was pioneered by the defence ministry in the late 1980s but faces bureaucratic resistance.

Although Fidel Castro has recently appeared to be in better health he was close to death following repeated abdominal surgery in 2006,according to unofficial reports,the cabinet shuffle has ended his habit of running a parallel government from his own office. One of those sacked,Otto Rivero,ran The Battle of Ideas,a Fidel-era operation with a big budget for construction and other projects. These and other special projects,such as Havana8217;s biotechnology complex and computer-science university,have been transferred to relevant ministries. 8220;There is just one government now,8221; a Cuban analyst said. 8220;It is more collegiate and Raúl personally chairs every meeting. The point is not that the Fidelistas are out and Raulistas are in,but that there is a new way of doing business.8221;

This sets the stage for a long-overdue Communist Party Congress the first since 1997 later this year. Such gatherings do not decide policy,they ratify it. That policy is continued one-party rule and a state-run economy that will be tweaked,rather than radically reformed. Future leaders will be drawn from the ranks of middle-aged provincial party secretaries and rising military officers,party insiders say. There will be no stars under Raúl Castro,no individual young leaders on whom outsiders can pin their hopes. This is the scenario that Mr Obama8217;s measures are intended to influence-and change. But on their own,they look unlikely to do so.

The Economist Newspaper Limited 2009