Different old story

An escalation of tensions between Pakistans civilian government and its powerful military automatically leads to talk of an impending coup given Pakistans history of military rule. Pakistan Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani has raised the governments pitch against the military he told Chinese state-run media that army chief General Ashfaq Kayani and ISI chief Ahmed Shuja Pasha had acted unconstitutionally and illegally,and on Wednesday sacked the defence secretary,Naeem Khalid Lodhi. The army has warned the PM that his allegations have very serious ramifications with potentially grievous consequences for the country. With the armys high-level meeting on Thursday and President Asif Ali Zardaris trip to Dubai,although supposedly on a scheduled visit,there is all-round speculation about the militarys next move.

This crisis,gathering since the US raid on Osama bin Ladens hideout which left the army embarrassed,exploded with the recent memogate scandal. The room for compromise seems to have shrunk further since,and Zardari is battling on three fronts the army,the courts and political rival Nawaz Sharif,whom he had failed to get on board when he had the chance. However,the salient feature of this stand-off is the resilience of the civilian government,not only in almost daring the army to take over but also in pushing back when pushed. If theres a silver lining on Pakistans horizon,its this perceptible change Zardaris government may be unpopular,but the public does not seem to have an appetite for a fresh phase of military rule. Kayani too may be wary of unseating a democratically elected government under circumstances that have changed since Pervez Musharraf ejected Sharif. The army may be cautious when democratic struggles have been altering the state of things eastwards from Tunisia.

Nevertheless,Zardari and Gilani may still run out of steam if bad news comes from the supreme court,which is investigating memogate and past corruption cases against Zardari and has severely criticised Gilani. So,even as the government pushes back,the political arrangements made in 2007 seem to be unravelling. The US,thinking of Afghanistan,would not like Pakistan to erupt in a crisis even more destabilising. But what China and Saudi Arabia,with special influence on Pakistan,have to say would be important. While India must stay silent in public,in its own interest,New Delhi must keep channels open with all major forces in Pakistan.