Watch this space

The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated8221;. The United National Progressive Alliance that positioned itself as an alternative...

The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated8221;. The United National Progressive Alliance UNPA that positioned itself as an alternative to the two dominant coalition fronts, the Congress-led UPA and the BJP-led NDA, could well borrow Mark Twain8217;s phrase. Obituaries were written at the time of its birth and still continue to be written. Even in the recent standoff on the nuclear issue, the focus was on the two fronts and their allies. Despite it not being able to capture popular imagination, insights from theoretical literature on political parties reveal that it is still too early to be written off.

Open jockeying within the UNPA has hardly helped raise confidence in its viability as a serious challenger. From the presidential elections to the choice of vice-president and the nuclear deal, the UNPA has not presented itself as a cohesive force. So, why should the third front not be given up for lost? The clue may lie in the answers to three questions. One, why have third fronts not been readily accepted? Two, why do third fronts behave the way they do? Three, how have the incumbent fronts reacted?

Two reasons may be advanced as to why third fronts are not readily acknowledged. One, the third front disturbs the harmony in the mental model that we have created. This has to do with what anthropologists have identified as the general human proclivity towards symmetry and stability. Most human creations seek to conform to some form of symmetry and only those that do are deemed to be appealing to human senses. The number two is therefore most often equated with equilibrium and balance. As a result, we are comfortable with two fronts and three becomes a crowd.

Second, winners get more attention and losers are often passed over. Contrast the recent reception the victorious Twenty20 cricket team received with that of the knocked out world cup team earlier this year. We love our winners and take no notice of losers. What is the composition of the third front? It is a combination of state-based political parties, none of which exercises power in their respective states. This group of out-of-office parties are additionally handicapped as they also do not have the numbers to make an impression at the Centre. Consequently their actions tend to fall outside our attention frame.

The concept of 8216;heresthetic8217; helps us answer the second and third questions. Heresthetic was a term invented by political scientist William Riker to depict the art of political manipulation. Smart politicians like savvy businessmen constantly contemplate moves to improve their position. Heresthetic describes manoeuvres, which include inventing new processes, innovating actions and framing issues, all of which are used to structure winning positions. While winners try to consolidate their position, losers attempt to change the existing status quo.

The UNPA is targeted against the coalition makers, the BJP and Congress, and not necessarily the coalitionable parties within the fronts. To dislodge them and change the existing state of affairs, the new front has to innovate, create and rethink issues of political agreement and disagreement. New entrants have to be pro-active. They are moving in unexplored territory; they have to find novel moves, use fresh paths, set new goals and more importantly keep their flock together. Raising new issues is difficult as the structural environment is winner/incumbent rather than loser/outsider friendly. Winners/incumbents can merely be content with defending encroachments. This explains why the third front appears to be an unstable and blundering entity compared to the incumbent fronts.

But appearances are deceptive, if we look at the heresthetic attacks the UNPA has been mounting since its inception. The BJP and the Congress, though competitors, have a collusive interest in preventing the consolidation of a third front. They, however, cannot be caught cooperating, so they fill the policy space by taking differentiated standpoints on existing issues and by sometimes co-opting or at other times ignoring new issues.

Story continues below this ad

The Kalam card in the presidential elections may have bombed but in the process it hurt the BJP and also made the Congress uncomfortable. In the vice-presidential elections that followed, the UNPA was first-off-the block in announcing its candidate. The other two fronts, realising the salience of the Muslim issue, co-opted it and followed a similar line with the NDA announcing its candidate just a day ahead of the closing of nominations. The incumbent fronts, therefore, gave no space to the new front.

On the nuclear deal, even before the 123 agreement was made public, the UNPA made its decision to oppose it public. The BJP, though briefed of the dialogue process by the government, had to take a divergent line from the Congress. By focussing on the Khammam firing in Andhra Pradesh and ignoring a similar standoff in West Bengal, the UNPA constructed issue frame pushed the Congress on the back foot. Not surprisingly, the third front call for alternate economic policies has simply been ignored by both the BJP and Congress. Until now the incumbents have not allowed any heresthetical advantage to the UNPA.

The third front would, however, continue to manoeuvre. After all, losers are more anxious to turn the tables. Its strategy at the moment is directed towards becoming one of the two main fronts. Party politics literature informs us that incumbents would find it difficult to counter such strategy and the only alternative is to employ heresthetical manipulation themselves. Though the spectre of mid-term polls has dissipated, timing the next general election will still be the decisive trick.

The writer teaches political science in Panjab University, Chandigarh