Watch how China defends itself

China8217;s neighbours to the east, Japan and Taiwan, have expressed concern about the implications of sustained high growth rates in Beijing8217;s defence expenditure. Since last year, the Pentagon has been talking up the threat from the rising Chinese military budget and the new threat to the region from Beijing8217;s growing military capabilities.

There was a time 8212; from the early 1960s to the early 1990s 8212; when the Indian defence establishment and strategic community would keep a hawk eye on the patterns of Chinese defence spending. With the improvement in Sino-Indian relations over the last decade and a declining sense of a security threat, there is little serious attention in New Delhi to Beijing8217;s defence policies.

While few in India today, and rightly so, are obsessed with a potential military threat from China, Delhi would be unwise to ignore the new directions in Chinese military spending, especially in relation to its modernisation of armed forces which holds many lessons for India.

Fifty billion will do

Officially the Chinese figure for defence spending this year is 35 billion. But given the very different way China calculates its defence expenditure 8212; Beijing does not use the standard templates of prevalent accounting systems in the world 8212; there is a big discrepancy between Chinese figures and external assessments.

Last year, for example, the official Chinese figure for defence spending was 29.9 billion. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute put it 35.4; the US think-tank Rand Corporation calculated it to be 42-51 billion. Few, of course, want to go along with the Pentagon8217;s estimate that Beijing planned to spend nearly 90 billion last year on defence. Rand8217;s assessment is widely acknowledged as one of the more rigorous assessments.

Rand calculates that the PRC is spending between 2.3 and 2.8 per cent of GDP on defence. This is 40 to 70 per cent higher than official figures put out by Beijing, but much lower than previous outside estimates of the share of GDP devoted to defence. Rand also estimates that Chinese military spending doubled between 1997 and 2003, almost catching up with the UK and Japan, which spend the most after the US on defence.

India, in contrast

For India it is more important to know how China spends its defence bucks rather than the mere size of the budget. China8217;s expenditure on equipment and acquisition appears far higher and more sustained than India8217;s. Paralysed by the Bofors syndrome, the Ministry of Defence has been unable to spend the earmarked money on weapons acquisition in recent years.

Even more important for India is the strong commitment of the PRC to a fundamental transformation of its military. China is slowly reducing the size of its armed forces, while making it more equipment oriented. Mobility, better fire power, and ability to operate at longer distances have increasingly become the focus of Chinese military spending. Following the two American wars in the Gulf, China is determined to bring its armd forces up to speed in adapting to what has been called the 8220;revolution in military affairs8221;. In military jargon, the RMA refers to the dramatic impact of information and communication technologies on the conduct of warfare.

In India, there8217;s hardly any discussion on military reform. If the Defence Ministry has given it any thought, it is a big secret. In any case no one is asking any questions on India8217;s military modernisation in Parliament, which gets excited only about presumed scandals on defence purchases. You can bet there would be no more than 20 MPs in Lok Sabha when the defence budget is passed this year.

Is Taiwan a country?

The war of words between China and Japan continues. This time the controversy is centred around the fiesty Japanese foreign minister, Taro Aso8217;s reference last week to Taiwan as a 8220;country8221;. Speaking to a parliamentary committee in Tokyo, Taro Aso said Taiwan 8220;is a country that shares values with Japan8221;. Shortly afterwards, Aso amended it by saying, 8220;calling it Taiwan 8216;a region8217; would have been accurate8221;.

China, of course, was not going to let this pass.

Beijing blasted Aso within hours after the statement was circulated on the wires. China sees Aso as an ambitious right-wing politician determined to provoke tensions between Beijing and Tokyo. 8220;Aso has taken an uncompromisingly hard-line attitude toward China, in a bid to win over the Japanese right-wing and create an image of a tough politician8221;, the Chinese news agency Xinhua said in a commentary.