Very ticklish

Deciding what the right time is to start doing business with General Pervez Musharraf is proving to be a very ticklish question for SAARC. Obviously governments in the region, like those elsewhere, cannot be seen to be treating the general on par with democratically elected leaders. Too early acceptance of the fait accompli in Islamabad would be construed as condoning military takeovers. But the longer the general stays on, the more untenable it becomes to deny him recognition as head of Pakistan8217;s government. SAARC is obviously in an awkward spot with a summit in Kathmandu scheduled in late November and the world waiting to see what kind of stance Pakistan8217;s neighbours take after their participation in the Commonwealth decision to suspend Pakistan from that forum. SAARC capitals would look pretty irresponsible if they went against the spirit of that decision a few weeks later by failing at their own regional forum to show their disapproval of the undemocratic goings-on in Pakistan. But it is not obvious thatcancelling the summit is the best way to uphold democracy in South Asia.

An answer to the next question becomes more pressing with each passing day: how long will Musharraf have to survive as a self-appointed chief executive officer before he can be invited to dine at SAARC8217;s high table? The dilemma is not resolved by the decision taken at India8217;s instance to put off the summit for the time being. The operative words are 8220;time being8221;. This is a mere show of reluctance about shaking hands with Musharraf under the pretence of taking stock of the new situation in the region. It will be seen as such. It is also quite meaningless whichever way one looks at it. At the bilateral level it is not evident that India can avoid talking to Pakistan as long as Musharraf seen as arch-villain of Kargil in this country remains at the helm.

Whether he stays or goes depends on internal politics in Pakistan and, to some extent, on the international reaction. India can influence the shape of international dealings withPakistan but dealings there must be; ostracising and isolating Pakistan is unsound tactics, would not be in India8217;s interest and is not seen as a wise course by Washington among other western powers.At the diplomatic level India can make it harder for the regime to gain legitimacy in the eyes of the world but cannot deny it that altogether. The present balance of forces within Pakistan and its history suggests the coup leader is likely to entrench himself sooner rather than later and, with the passage of time, the world will do business with Pakistan. At the regional level, postponement of the summit conveys as usual that India-Pakistan tensions are spilling over into SAARC and dominating the agenda to the detriment of all else, including social, economic and trade issues progress on which are of great importance to the people of the region. Having delivered the message that military officers are not welcome at SAARC meetings, India should leave it at that and not try and link bilateral issues to it.Islamabad8217;s moral, material and political support to terrorists active in Kashmir must be taken up with Islamabad.