US blows the whistle on Pak tests

It is possible that a green signal may come from Islamabdad within a day or two.

The CNN quoted an intelligence official as saying that Pakistan is ready to conduct the test anytime now.

However, administration officials believe that Islamabad may hold back the test till a Pakistani parliamentary delegation holds talks with US Senators and officials on May 29. Indian officials surmise that the test preparations may be a gambit to extract the maximum concessions out of US and itsallies.

While the Pakistanis responded to the sirens going off by saying it was a false alarm, the episode has injected a sense of urgency into the back channel negotiations between Washington and Islamabad about what Pakistan should get in return for abstaining from testing.

Pakistan has dismissed as peanuts the US offer of F-16s, the reopening of other unspecified arms supply and conversion of some 5 billion in short term debt into long term repayment. Islamabad wants more, Islamabad wants it in iron clad assurances, and most of all, Islamabad wants to see evidence of India punished severely for upsetting what it thinks is regional balance, informed sources said.

But the US is not willing to give anything either without in turn getting iron clad assurances that Pakistan will not renege on its promises.

Washington wants Islamabad to cap and roll back its nuclear program in return for any American goodies.

Although the Congress is in recess, the sources said President Clinton had the option ofusing something called presidential waiver 614 which would allow repeal of the Pressler Amendment in the interest of US national security to facilitate the immediate return of the F-16s. But here8217;s the catch: The Pressler Law was used to determine that Pakistan had crossed the nuclear threshold. Under the Pressler Amendment, Pakistan could get US aid only if the President certified Islamabad did not have nuclear weapons programme. In 1990, President Bush could not make such a certification and aid was suspended.

If President Clinton signs a waiver to repeal Pressler Amendment, he would in effect, be certifying Pakistan does not have a nuclear weapons programme, which is manifestly not true. So to do that, Washington has to get Pakistan to roll back its nuclear programme. US officials say its a quot;very trickly boondogglequot; which needs meetings between the White House and the Congress to unravel.

That meeting is yet to happen, although both sides are talking separately to Islamabad. Pakistan meanwhile hascontemptuously dismissed American blandishments offered so far while seeking greater economic aid and security cover. quot;For starters, US and other Western countries could consider diverting to Pakistan the aid they are withholding from India,quot; former Pakistani ambassador Jamsheed Marker, said on Tuesday.

Marker and several other prominent Pakistanis in the US are advocating abstaining from the tests, but they also want the US to move quickly and bail out the Nawaz Sharif government.

Islamabad meanwhile appears to be pushing the envelope by initiating a countdown for the test, driving back channel negotiators into a frenzy. But sources here say the administration is hamstrung by its overall lack of faith in the Pakistan8217;s stability and sense of responsibility. quot;What if the US provides aid, arms, security cover and tomorrow the Pakistanis begin to act provocatively?quot; a former administration official asked. Although Pakistan is upping the stakes by showing it is all systems go for the test, some observersfeel Islamabad will still not prepared to take the precipitate step. Not because it cannot or because of the fear of sanctions, but because anything they do will most certainly not match India8217;s tests and it could yet lead to a loss of face.

Experts also surmise that with less than 200 kg of fissile material in its possession, Pakistan cannot afford to waste much of it in tests.