United by the king

Barring a few remnants of India8217;s feudal aristocracy and sections of the BJP, no one would shed a tear for the impending demise of Nepal8217;s 238-year-old Hindu monarchy. Many in Nepal, including its grand old man, Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala, might have preferred a ceremonial monarchy in a genuinely democratic Nepal. The impatience of the Maoists for a tangible political victory and their unwillingness to let the planned Constituent Assembly deliberate on the issue left no room for the monarchy8217;s survival. The need to salvage the faltering peace process with the Maoists appears to have forced Koirala8217;s hand. The uncomfortable truth, however, is that the monarchy has long ceased to be Nepal8217;s central problem.

No surprise, then, that Monday8217;s official Indian reaction to the latest turn of events in Nepal made no reference to the abolition of the monarchy. It focused instead on welcoming the agreement between the political parties and the Maoists to hold the twice postponed but crucial elections to the Constituent Assembly in April 2008. For nearly a year India has watched with frustration the inability of the political classes in Nepal to hold on to the basic terms of the peace process. Paradoxically, the abolition of the monarchy might remove the political glue that has held the Maoists and political parties together since a popular revolt in April 2006 that compelled King Gyanendra to return all powers to the Parliament. The Maoists, who control much of the countryside through fear, are troubled by the recognition that they might be able to come to power in a fair election. Although the political parties have accepted the Maoist demand for electing a larger section of the new parliament on the basis of proportional representation, there is no guarantee that the Maoists will allow free polls.

Meanwhile, the people of Indian origin in Nepal, who constitute nearly a third of the population, are turning militant in demanding an end to their treatment as second class citizens. The long marginalised janajatis of Nepal too are restive. It is one thing for Nepal to abolish the monarchy; it is another to lay the foundations of a genuine republic. Nepal8217;s successful transition will certainly require sustained Indian political encouragement and diplomatic intervention.