
Former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto8217;s death raises the spectre of prolonged political conflict between Pakistan8217;s president, Pervez Musharraf, and the country8217;s opposition, according to Pakistani and American analysts. How he handles the next several days could determine whether nationwide anti-government protests erupt.
8220;I see a lot more trouble for Musharraf in the near future,8221; said Hasan Askari Rizvi, a leading Pakistani political analyst.
Bhutto8217;s party, the largest in the country, is now leaderless, and many of its members already blame Musharraf8217;s government for her death. Musharraf remains deeply unpopular after declaring a state of emergency in November and suppressing Bhutto and his other political opponents.
Meanwhile, Nawaz Sharif, the country8217;s other main opposition leader, is scrambling to reorganise his party after years in exile.
Bhutto8217;s death upends the political landscape in a country that has searched, often in vain, for political stability since it achieved independence 60 years ago.
Pakistani observers pointed out on Thursday that Bhutto was shot a few yards from where the country8217;s first prime minister, Liaqat Ali Khan, was assassinated in 1951. Since then, military coups, fixed elections and bitter political battles have marred attempts to stabilise the country.
How events unfold in the coming days and weeks lies largely in the hands of Musharraf, Bhutto8217;s husband and Sharif, according to Pakistani analysts. But it is Musharraf who faces the largest potential threat.
Analysts said the assassination would hurt Musharraf politically and place him in one of the most difficult positions of his turbulent eight years in power.
At the core of Musharraf8217;s problem is a widespread perception that he did too little to protect Bhutto or that his government carried out the killing itself, analysts said.
On Thursday, members of Bhutto8217;s party accused Musharraf8217;s government of exactly that. And Musharraf8217;s own supporters blamed the government for lax security.
8220;The government had responsibility to ensure that she was safe,8221; said Ikram Sehgal, a Pakistani security expert who served in the military with Musharraf. 8220;There was a concerted effort to get her.8221;
If Musharraf declares a state of emergency to rein in protests, he is likely to meet stronger popular opposition than he did when he declared emergency powers in November, analysts said..