Tremor in Maharashtra

The worst nightmare of the Congress in Maharashtra is being played out. If the cracks in the party deepen, it faces the pro-spect of going into the Lok Sabha polls in the same state of disarray that led to its historic defeat in the assembly election in 1995. No one can predict exactly where the fault-lines will eventually develop. Going by the first reaction in the MPCC and subsidiary bodies which ranged from anger with Sharad Pawar to servility towards Sonia Gandhi, the Congress organisation in the state appears to be isolating the rebels. It was to be expected that the Congress organisation wo-uld rise to Sonia Gandhi8217;s defence and try to checkmate Pawar in the initial round. Over the last couple of years Pawar loyalists have been eased out of key positions in the pradesh, youth and city Congress committees and this is clearly one of the causes of his revolt against the high command. However, Pawar is judged to have a mass base and credence is being given to his claim to have the support of a number of MPsand MLAs and district leaders and party workers.The predominant picture is one of utter confusion which threatens to worsen as long as Sonia Gandhi stays out of the president8217;s chair. As such, the most politically correct position appears to be that of Chhagan Bhujbal, leader of the opposition in the Assembly and Pawar loyalist, who says the party needs both Sonia Gandhi and Sharad Pawar. Certainly from the point of view of the Maharash-tra Congress, party unity is the sine qua non. Not without good reason do the Shiv Sena and the BJP see their fortunes looking up.

The ruling coalition which has a poor record in government to overcome is now counting on a split in the Congress vote to compensate. Sharad Pawar appears to calculate that he is in a win-win situation whatever the outcome at the CWC. But even an alliance with Third Front parties in Maharashtra is not likely to make up for the damage caused by a divided Congress.

Pawar8217;s calculation will be that the Congress minus Sonia Gandhi will have no oneto turn to but him. He may be right. Sharad Pawar is the pre-eminent Congress leader in the state and in the right conditions has been able to rally the whole party around him. But his successes have led to counter-measures by the party high command which have been more destructive than constructive.

This can be gauged from the fact that even though his party rivals may have managed to contain Pawar, blocking his rise on the national stage, they have not been able to build an alternative centre of power within the Congress in Maharashtra. Such is the pitiable condition of the anti-Pawar faction of the party that Sudhir Sawant, AICC secretary, is reduced to saying the Congress in Maharashtra is a zero without Sonia Gandhi.

Pawar who finds himself in the position of his one-time mentor Y.B. Chavan, a lion in Maharashtra but a lamb in New Delhi, has been forced to break out and forge a new path. What it will come to is as yet an open question. What is clear is that he is challenging the coterie-style ofdecision-making in the high command. The Pawar rebellion is not the first and will not be the last by a state chieftain unless the Congress becomes a genuinely democratic party.