Time for new coalitions

The main question in terms of foreign policy is whether there will be continuity or change. Will the Bush administration, unencumbered by further electoral considerations, re-engage internationally, either out of necessity or newfound conviction? Will he be more nuanced in his policies, attracting global support for the democracy building efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan, lead a fresh effort to bring peace to the post-Arafat Middle East, and conduct the 8220;war on terrorism8221; more deftly, matching the rhetoric of comprehensive social and economic approaches with the reality of rising terrorist recruitment worldwide? Given Pakistan8217;s pivotal position in America8217;s foreign policy nexus of proliferation, democractisation, and counter-terrorism goals, how will the relationship with India move forward?

There is a contradiction among the statements that Bush has wrongly sought to 8220;impose his vision on the world8221; and yet 8220;only American leadership can resolve major outstanding conflicts8221;. Still, a new kind of multilateralism which demands results of others while providing encouragement and support is likely to define Bush8217;s second term foreign policy. His administration will expect that the Palestinian authority no longer be held hostage to Arafat8217;s whims, and that the role of militant groups he nourished will be diminished, permitting Sharon to complete the withdrawal from Gaza and parts of the West Bank. The next step would include working with Sharon to allow, finally, an independent Palestinian state to be founded. This step would also address reservations a growing number of Arab states have about US policy towards the region. Iraq, of course, will continue to be 8212; and be seen as 8212; a primarily American conundrum, potentially still escalating into a quagmire.

It has been conventional wisdom that Republicans in general and the Bush administration in particular has accorded India the respect it deserves on the world stage and holds the best hope for a pro-Indian foreign policy in terms of military, economic and diplomatic relations. But there are a number of caveats to rosy predictions of a flourishing partnership. First, the 8220;war on terrorism8221;, not strategic alliance-building in Asia, remains the prevailing paradigm in Washington. Unless the Bush team can be convinced that President Musharraf8217;s Putin-esque maneuverings constitute sufficient reason to reverse the current blank check policy, it is unlikely that US policy towards Pakistan will be aligned with India8217;s longer-term goals. Indeed, rumours surfaced before the election that if re-elected, Bush would approve the sale of F-16s to Pakistan, Washington8217;s newest 8220;major non-NATO ally8221;. Furthermore, though it is the Democrats who are most often identified with 8220;nonproliferation fundamentalism8221;, the almost year-old Next Steps for Strategic Partnership saga should dispel any myths that the Bush administration will treats export control and dual-use technology transfer issues lightly. Indeed, while the US has lifted sanctions on the Indian Space Research Organisation, two nuclear scientists who traveled to Iran as part of IAEA delegation remain blacklisted, and licensing approvals remain very slow. The claim that F-16s are the real 8220;dual-use8221; weapons 8212; against militants on the Afghan border and against India 8212; still fall on deaf ears.

Just two weeks ago, Assistant Secretary of State Christina Rocca said, 8220;we have moved to a phase of Indo-US relations where many barriers that separated us over the last many years have come down.8221; But there are limits to positive Indo-US cooperation in the current strategic context. India thus limits the talk of a budding strategic alliance to the language of 8220;partnership8221; and pursues its own economic driven reconciliation with China. Over the next few years, however, we can expect economic ties to take on the significance they deserve. Certainly outsourcing will continue unabated. Trade relations and FDI should steadily grow, giving India a greater stake in the world economy and slightly more leverage in bilateral ties.

One growing factor will be the role of the diaspora, which experienced something of a political awakening during this year8217;s election. Indian Americans were proud of India8217;s own election this spring, which demonstrated high voter turnout, a commitment to secularism and pluralistic governance, and an emphasis on national development. They can be equally proud of their salience in the US election, on both sides of the aisle. The America India Political Action Committee and campaign donors worked hard to raise money and concerns, influence policy proposals, and win promises of high-level appointments. Most importantly, Bobby Jindal, the poster child Republican from Louisiana, has become the second Indian American member of Congress.

I noticed the transition from BJP to Congress leadership was surprisingly efficient. Had Kerry won, a six month period would be required for a new foreign policy team to come in, have its appointments confirmed, and start to actively pursue its formulated platform. Let us hope, then, that with the US election decided in a timely fashion and in favour of the incumbent, there will be no such delay in moving Indo-American relations forward in a mutually beneficial and comprehensive manner.

The writer is a senior analyst, Brookings Institution, Washington DC