The shadow over Musharraf

Investigations into who was responsible for the bomb blasts are now on in full swing. Pakistani security agencies claim the jamming devices in the presidential cavalcade effectively prevented the bombs from detonating as the cavalcade sped over the bridge. Accusations are flying that the perpetrators are from one of the banned jihadi groups operating across the LoC in Jammu and Kashmir and the Taliban-Al Qaeda combine. But it is evident that the Pakistanis are telling their American and other patrons that the needle of suspicion points towards bin Laden8217;s trusted deputy, Ayman al Zawahiri, who had earlier called on the Pakistan army to revolt against General Musharraf for his role in 8220;betraying8221; his Muslim brethren in the Taliban and Al-Qaeda, to the American 8220;infidels8221;.

This is a particularly interesting turn of events, because Musharraf himself had used the actions of Prophet Mohammed to justify his decision to back America against the Taliban. In a televised broadcast on September 19, 2001, Musharraf justified his decision to support the Americans in their 8216;War against Terrorism8217; in Afghanistan by claiming that his decision was similar to the Prophet Mohammed8217;s temporary alliance with the Jews, when the Prophet signed the Treaty of Hudabiya. Musharraf told his countrymen the Prophet made this tactical decision to side with the Jews, so that he could take on other infidels. He added that the Prophet later on withdrew from the treaty with the Jews and defeated them. What Musharraf did not then seem to understand was that when a smaller country enters into an unequal alliance for temporary gain, it is not easy to dump the stronger party, especially if the latter is a global superpower. Musharraf has tried to run with the hare and hunt with the hounds. He has extended some cooperation to the Americans, while permitting the Taliban, the Al-Qaeda and their jihadi allies in Pakistan, use of Pakistani territory, for shelter and assistance. In the process, he has earned the enmity of the Taliban and their supporters, who are now obviously gunning for him on the one hand, and the distrust of the Americans and the international community, on the other.

The bomb explosions on the bridge were not the first attempt on Musharraf8217;s life. Barely two months ago, three Islamic militants of the Alami faction of the Harkat ul Mujahideen were sentenced to long prison terms for attempting to assassinate Musharraf last year. Well-informed analysts have spoken of six or seven previous attempts. What is, however, intriguing about the recent attempt is the location of the bridge where the bomb blasts took place. The bridge is located barely a few hundred yards away from the Joint Staff Headquarters of the Pakistan armed forces. It is also close to the headquarters of the army8217;s 10 Corps 8212; a crucial military formation that not only stages coups against democratically elected governments, but also controls the operations of jihadi groups operating in J038;K. Musharraf8217;s residence is barely a few kilometres away. It would surprise no one if we later learn that Islamist elements in the armed forces were involved.

Attempts on the lives of Pakistan8217;s rulers by disgruntled members of the armed forces are nothing new. There are strong reasons to believe the airplane crash in which General Zia ul Haq died was engineered by disgruntled Shia elements within the army. There had been manifestations of Shia discontent within the armed forces even earlier, during General Zia8217;s rule. Then there was the case of Major General Zaheer ul Hassan Abbasi getting caught while attempting the armed overthrow of the government of Benazir Bhutto. Following his decision to play ball with the Americans after the terrorist attacks on New York and Washington, General Musharraf had to supersede and obtain the resignations of two senior lt generals 8212; Muzzafar Usmani and Mehmood Ahmed 8212; both of whom were his crucial allies when he overthrew Nawaz Sharif. The Americans regarded Mehmood and Usmani as religious extremists. Musharraf8217;s present heir apparent within the army, General Mohamad Yusuf Khan is a person with whom the Americans appear to feel quite comfortable.

The Rawalpindi bomb blasts indicate that there are growing differences within the Pakistan army establishment over the policies to be adopted towards the Taliban and the Al-Qaeda on the one hand, and the jihadi groups like the Harkat ul Mujahideen and the Jaish e Mohammed that have acted directly against US interests and targeted its nationals, on the other.

It is significant that while Musharraf has acted to ban these groups after they assumed new names, he has not banned the Lashkar e Taiba now calling itself Markaz ud Dawa that remains the most formidable terrorist group operating in J038;K. Ever since the Americans encouraged and helped the ISI to use militant and Wahhabi Islam as a potent weapon to force the Soviet Union out of Afghanistan, a strong element in the Pakistan army believes in the efficacy of using militant Islam to attain geo-political objectives. Given American imperatives, Musharraf can no longer fully oblige them. These elements now wish to remove Musharraf from power. Pakistan is headed for a period of continuing internal turmoil and political uncertainty. Prime Minister Vajpayee will do well to remember this as he packs his bags for the SAARC summit in Islamabad.