The Rising

As the nation warms, Pune8217;s climate centre that forecasts monsoon starts work on seasonal temperature as well

LAST year was India8217;s 11th warmest year8212;since 1901. That8217;s the latest piece of history in India8217;s temperature trends compiled this month at the National Climate Centre NCC of the India Meteorological Department IMD in Pune. As the nation warms, forecasters here have begun research on computational models to predict seasonal temperatures the way they predict the monsoon.

8216;8216;We plan to issue an experimental long-range forecast of temperatures next year,8217;8217; M Rajeevan, director, NCC, told The Sunday Express. 8216;8216;Since the IMD is using a dynamical model to predict the monsoon, we8217;ll test its skill for the seasonal prediction of temperatures also. It8217;s part of IMD8217;s research agenda to develop a seasonal temperature forecast model.8217;8217;

In Delhi, V S Ramamurthy, secretary, Department of Science and Technology, confirms: By next year they NCC should be able to give a fairly good seasonal temperature forecast like the monsoon forecast. Temperatures do make a difference, especially for agricultural patterns.8217;8217;

Researchers in Pune plot the long-range monsoon forecast released every summer in Delhi, and a separate team has been identified to start work on the long-range temperature forecast project as well.

FOR India, it8217;s the beginning of long-term research, but seasonal temperature forecasts are issued in the US. There8217;s a demand for it back home8212;among India8217;s 10 warmest years on record, half were post-2000. 8216;8216;The increase in temperature is small now, but the rate of change is increasing,8217;8217; points out Ramamurthy.

The NCC8217;s Annual Climate Summary 2005 released this month indicates the trend: In 2005, annual mean temperature averaged over the country as a whole was 0.37 degrees celsius above the 1961-1990 average. Thus, 2005 was the 11th warmest year since 1901.8217;8217; The report emphasises that last year was characterised by 8216;8216;above normal temperatures over different parts of the country.8217;8217;

The heat8217;s getting the economy edgy, and analysts from soft drink companies, air-conditioner makers, or agro-based companies selling seeds are calling up the Pune forecasters, in the hope of a seasonal tip-off for this summer8217;s heat.

Story continues below this ad

This year too, temperatures often didn8217;t behave normal. During February, temperatures equalled or broke previous daily maximum records for February in 32 centres from Delhi, Nagpur, Guwahati to Thiruvananthapuram. 8216;8216;Beyond doubt, there8217;s a definite warming trend visible regionally,8217;8217; says Rajeevan. 8216;8216;Data post-2000 indicates very significant warming.8217;8217;

The report says the pattern of anomalies in average annual temperatures suggest a 8216;8216;significant positive8217;8217; increasing trend over most parts of the country except parts of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Bihar.