The bumpy road ahead

Although McCain tasted success in New Hampshire, Michigan and his home stateArizona, the conservative republican establishment, having raised millionsof dollars for Bush, is beginning to sense victory for their man.

quot;I get former President Bush8217;s sons mixed up,quot; somebody told a group. quot;Whichone is George W., who8217;s running for President?quot; quot;The one with the pointyears,quot; replied his buddy. quot;But Al Gore has a pointy nose,quot; the person firedback. quot;Those last two sentences,quot; said a bystander, quot;represents theintellectual quality of the campaign thus far.quot;

Talking of global issues in this election year is almost blasphemy. Nobody8217;simagination is fired by what goes on in Bosnia, Kosovo, Chechnya and theMiddle East. So that Madeleine Albright, exhausted by her own sanctimoniousposturing on human rights violations, can holiday in the Mediterraneanclimes. There is also good news for the leaders in Yugoslavia and Iraq.

Having gained some sort of a temporary respite, they can breathe freely asAmericans decide on Bill Clinton8217;s successor. Yet, you can still come acrosspeople in academic circles who are sensitive to developments outside NorthAmerica. Though China remains their major preoccupation, India figuresprominently in academic discussions. Predictably, the favourite themes areKashmir, India8217;s nuclear programme, liberalisation of the economy, thefuture of secular democracy, and President Clinton8217;s visit to thesubcontinent. Area studies can be frustrating, especially if one is notcovering one of the quot;majorquot; regions in the world. But success, recognitionand rewards come quickly after one acquires an intellectual profile.

I spoke to one such successful man in his plush office at 232 East HighStreet in Charlottesville, Virginia. He is the 41-year-old programmedirector of the W. Alton Jones Foundation and member of the Council onForeign Relations. Having made his intellectual debut only recently, he hasalready arrived on the scene. Academics and policy-makers turn to him forinformation, analysis and advice.

Watch out, he is in India at the moment testing the waters, so to speak, onthe eve of Clinton8217;s visit. He may well return to Washington before the endof this week and join the presidential entourage to New Delhi. Hiscredentials are impeccable: a Bachelor8217;s degree from the University ofCalifornia, Santa Cruz, a Master8217;s in Soviet Studies from Harvard, and adoctorate from the University of Virginia. Yes, no background in Indianstudies. Guess who? His name is George Perkovich, the author of India8217;sNuclear Bomb: The Impact of Global Proliferation.

A few years from now he may well publish another book on India8217;s democracy.That is, if democratic values and institutions survive the onslaught of itsnew enemies. India8217;s nuclear bomb merits attention because it places inperspective the multi-faceted evolution of India8217;s nuclear programme, theperilous journey that led to Pokharan in May 1998: the specialist LawrenceFreedman compliments Perkovich, in the Times Literary Supplement Review, forhis rich, definitive account of India8217;s road to nuclear status.

As a historian, I particularly enjoyed reading Chapter 1 which succinctlyargues that the capacity to master the atom represented modernity, potentialprosperity, transcendence of the colonial past, individual and nationalprowess and international leverage. Perkovich brings home the tensionbetween a country8217;s self-image as a pluralist democracy and the architect ofnon-alignment, and its desire to be treated as one of the super powers, andhow this tension has manifested itself in nuclear policy.

He details how Homi Bhabha gave the dual military and civilian purpose tothe nuclear programme, and how Nehru agreed that nuclear capacity in thecivilian power domain and in weapon applications would enhance the country8217;sself-esteem and international stature. In the changed situation, however,Perkovich appeals for pragmatism and a reordering of priorities. quot;With amore pragmatic approach to tactics, India could lead the internationalcommunity in helping to avoid and reduce the dangers of deployed nucleararsenals.quot; This is not a handout issued by the W. Alton Jones foundationthat is committed to eliminating nuclear weapons, but the reflections of asober analyst.

One hopes the nuclear establishment is listening. If not, one would expectthe Prime Minister to pay attention to Perkovich8217;s weighty arguments. Afterall, besides being sensitive to India8217;s security concerns, he thinks well ofAtalji, the quot;statesmanquot;. Echoing a widely shared view in academia, the mediaand Capitol Hill, Perkovich believes that Vajpayee is one of the very fewleaders who had the self-confidence to make a categorical decision ofself-restraint in the midst of a severe crisis.

He had in mind the Lahore declaration and the Prime Minister8217;s insistencethat Indian troops should not cross the line of control during the KargilWar. However, besides the communal claptrap, what irks the Americanestablishment, says Perkovich, is that the BJP leaders quot;are vastly inferioras potential international figures and could, in fact, lead the country intoa dangerous terrain.quot; How can an inward-looking party project aninternational leader? he asked me. I wish I knew.

The clock struck 2 p.m. Professor Walter Hauser, who put me in touch withPerkovich, returned to his apartment in the same complex. I was brought backto the History Department in Randall Hall to prepare my lecture on thepermanent and ryotwari settlements. While explaining the intricacies ofBritish land settlements to my forty odd undergraduate students, I keptthinking why we, the inheritors of Gandhi8217;s non-violent legacy, have failedto create a countrywide movement against nuclear weaponisation.

No doubt, individuals like Praful Bidwai and Achin Vanaik, authors of SouthAsia on a Short Fuse, have argued their case tenaciously. But we need manymore people to intervene in this debate and help evolve a broad nationalconsensus. The road is bumpy but negotiable.