Sharif146;s back in town

Pakistan president, General Pervez Musharraf, has taken a step back in allowing the former prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, to return to Pakistan under an apparent deal brokered by Saudi Arabia. The hostility between the two is no secret ever since Sharif was ousted by Musharraf in a military coup in October 1999. Musharraf had also humiliated Sharif by unceremoniously deporting him to Saudi Arabia when he had landed at Islamabad airport in September. The Pakistan army, as an institution, hopes that the return of Nawaz Sharif will help it in overcoming its current weakness and sustaining its dominance over the polity. In setting up potential competition to Benazir Bhutto, who has dominated the political scene ever since she came back in October 8212; under a separate deal with Musharraf 8212; the army can expect to re-emerge as the arbiter among popular civilian leaders.

There is speculation that Sharif has agreed not to contest in the general elections due in early January. The army, in turn, is expected to allow his family members to join the electoral race. Sharif denies any deal with Musharraf, and has promised to work with Bhutto in restoring full democracy and revitalising a judiciary, which has been brought to heel by Musharraf. Bhutto, too, has welcomed Sharif8217;s return as a boost to Pakistan8217;s democratic culture. She has also talked about a possible alliance with all moderate forces in Pakistan. The political bases of Bhutto and Sharif are indeed complementary. Sharif is strongest in Punjab, especially in its urban areas and Bhutto retains her appeal in Sind and much of rural Pakistan.

Despite their common political agenda, it is by no means certain that Bhutto and Sharif will hang together. Their bitter rivalry and poor judgment in the nineties actually lent legitimacy to Musharraf8217;s coup. The first test of unity between Bhutto and Sharif is round the corner. Bhutto has agreed to participate in the January elections despite Musharraf8217;s decision to persist with emergency rule. If the army prevents Sharif from contesting the polls or Sharif himself orders his party, the Muslim League, to boycott them, oppositional unity will disintegrate. That, in turn, will be a huge setback to the prospects of a genuine political transformation in Pakistan towards democratic rule. It will also undermine the ability of the moderate forces to put up a concerted fight against religious extremism 8212; something that threatens the very existence of

Pakistan today. Above all, it would let the Pakistan army off the hook.