Both political history and informed political punditry suggest that the BSP gaining momentum is the most likely change as the initial findings by the Indian Express/CNN-IBN UP poll survey are tested against time. Psephologists themselves say they have traditionally underestimated the BSP. This time, with the BSP starting as a leader by a narrow margin, that underestimation may mean Mayawati emerging not just as the post-poll leading light but also with enough wattage to attract sufficient number of political moths. The question then is, will Mayawati be able to start a different kind of buzz? These columns argued yesterday that the national parties losing out in the UP race has negative policy implications for the state. Our argument was and is that the two regional heavyweights are still caught in the paradigm in which distribution of limited government patronage is the means to achieving a limited outcome: ‘raising’ section- specific political profiles.But since UP, as our columnist today makes clear, is the battleground in which India’s economic future will be decided, it is necessary to remind a politician like Mayawati that not only should she change tack, but that she can do it by making it politically profitable for herself. Mayawati is a tough, clever, gutsy and occasionally mercurial politician. She likes to administer via personal example — key policies carry her imprimatur. She commands a degree of fear from even her seniormost colleagues. All of these are not qualities that political science textbooks will mention. But, used rightly, they can produce considerable public good. Not coincidentally, three chief ministers most frequently mentioned while assessing good policies at the state level possess some or all of these attributes. Therefore, Mayawati has it in her to do what Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee, Navin Patnaik and Narendra Modi have done in terms of policy shifts.She should note none of these CMs is politically suffering. This lesson holds despite the specific nature of Mayawati’s political mobilisation. If, for example, Mayawati uses her political authority to push through a big industrialisation programme, the jobs, the incomes, the general change in the economic mood cannot but increase her cross-sectional appeal. It would give her better political hold than the famous ‘Ambedkar villages’ she had sought to create with public funds. Our survey shows UP voters are ready to talk development — if the next CM opens the dialogue, political returns will be high. And if Mayawati is that CM, the makeover she manages in UP, given UP’s political weight, will make her a very important national leader. Bigger probably than Lalu and Mulayam Yadav. That’s incentive enough, surely?
