Rumblings of war

8220;Actually,8221; the chairman replied, 8220;I think Admiral Cosgriff, who made that statement, is making an accurate statement.8221;

Or, as John McCain might sing, 8220;Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran.8221;

The doldrums of the Fourth of July recess have been enlivened by fresh talk of another war. Is it a diplomatic bluff or a serious possibility? Perhaps some of each: Iran8217;s foreign minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, told the Associated Press Wednesday that the possibility of an attack is 8220;craziness8221; 8212; but, just in case, he also made sure in the same interview to speak about progress in negotiations with the West.

The administration, for its part, seems eager to convince Iran that President Bush is crazy enough to sanction an attack. In the Rose Garden Wednesday, Brett Baier of Fox News asked Bush how confident he is that Israel won8217;t launch a military attack on Iran before the end of the year. 8220;I have always said that all options are on the table, but the first option for the United States is to solve this problem diplomatically,8221; came Bush8217;s mild reply.

ABC8217;s Martha Raddatz invited Bush to 8220;strongly discourage

Israel8221; from such an activity. The president declined. 8220;I have made it very clear to all parties that the first option ought to be to solve this problem diplomatically,8221; he said.

Neither did the State Department offer discouragement. Spokesman Sean McCormack, at his daily briefing, said the matter of an Israeli strike isn8217;t 8220;under our control.8221; When it was pointed out that the US controls Iraqi airspace, through which Israeli warplanes would travel to hit Iran, McCormack declined to answer a 8220;hypothetical question involving military planning.8221;

As in most things involving the Bush administration, clarity can be found in the name Cheney 8212; in this case the vice president8217;s daughter Liz, speaking last week at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. 8220;I think the Iranians have to believe that we will use force if necessary, and I8217;m concerned because you had statements for a period of time there from people like the commander in Centcom, who has since been relieved, suggesting that force was off the table,8221; she said.

Liz Cheney further recommended doing 8220;everything we can to dispel this idea that, somehow, we don8217;t have the capacity militarily to take action,8221; and she said it is crucial to make Iran realise, 8220;despite what you may be hearing from Congress, despite what you may be hearing from others in the administration who might be saying force isn8217;t on the table, that we8217;re serious.8221; As for an Israeli strike on Iran, she said: 8220;I certainly don8217;t think that we should do anything but support them.8221;

Cheney may soon get her chance. Last month, Israel held a major military drill that was widely seen as preparation for an attack on Iran8217;s nuclear program. Around the same time, three prominent Israeli officials made public comments about the likelihood of an attack. Then came Seymour Hersh8217;s article in the New Yorker reporting an increase in US covert activities in Iran, along with Iran8217;s threat to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, through which a large chunk of the world8217;s oil passes. This week, ABC News featured an unnamed senior defense official talking about 8220;an increasing likelihood8221; of an Israeli attack by the end of the year.

In front of the cameras Wednesday, Mullen tried to warn about the military problems such an attack would set off. 8220;This is a very unstable part of the world,8221; the chairman said, 8220;and I don8217;t need it to be more unstable.8221; With troops already stretched thin in Iraq and Afghanistan, he acknowledged that 8220;opening up a third front right now would be extremely stressful8221; on the US military. The chief warrior therefore appealed for 8220;other elements of national power to change Iranian behavior, including diplomatic, financial and international pressure.8221;

But Mullen, informed by his discussions with Israeli military officials, did not offer much reassurance that an Israeli strike could be avoided. Iran, he said, is 8220;still on a path to get to nuclear weapons, and I think that8217;s something that needs to be deterred.8221;

Might Iran have enough nuclear fuel to build a bomb by the year8217;s end?

8220;I don8217;t want to address that,8221; the chairman said.

Is Israel operating on a shorter time frame than the United States?

Mullen said past discussions 8220;indicated that they were.8221;

Is there a danger that all the bluffing could cause an actual war?

8220;It is high stakes, there8217;s no question, in this part of the world, and I guess I8217;d just leave it at that.8221;