There are only three states left in the Indian Union where the electoral fight is going to be between the mainline parties. There is a direct contest between the BJP and the Congress only in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Himachal Pradesh. In all the other states, the regional parties are either frontline players or in the second position. Never before has there been such a decline of national parties as is being witnessed in Election 1998.In Jammu & Kashmir, the dominant force is the National Conference, in Punjab the Akali Dal, in Haryana it is going to be a three-way affair between Haryana Vikas Party-BJP, Chautala-BSP and the Congress. In the country's largest state, Uttar Pradesh, the fight is a four-cornered one between Congress, Samajwadi Party, BJP and the BSP. In Bihar, Laloo Yadav's RJD is the major player. In Gujarat it is Rashtriya Janata Party of Shankarsinh Vaghela (with or without the Congress) facing the BJP. In Maharasthra, it is the Shiv Sena. In Orissa, Naveen Patnaik's regional grouping will be the bigger partner in the alliance with the BJP, if it works out.In Andhra Pradesh it remains TDP versus Congress. Karnataka has also become three cornered contest with Hegde's Lok Shakti giving greater legitimacy to the BJP. In Tamil Nadu it is only regional parties which matter. In West Bengal Mamta's Trinamool Congress will give the Left Front half a dozen more seats than it would have otherwise got. It is AGP versus the Congress in Assam. The list goes on.Never has any previous election seen such a spate of regional parties becoming key players. Even no-member parties like Jai Telengana are respectable members of the Jan Morcha front. Everyone knows that the contest will be a keen and a close one and a 2-3 pc vote swing could make a difference to who emerges as the single largest formation.An offshoot of this phenomenon is the regionalisation of national leaders. Hegde, who was at one time a prime ministerial candidate has become the head of a regional party, though for years he ruled out the option of launching a regional outfit in Karnataka. From being the president of a national party, Laloo Yadav is heading a regional outfit now, though trying to do summit politics to firm up his position in Bihar.This is not to deny the reverse trend - of regional leaders trying to become national players. For the first time the regional parties are not going into elections by hurling abuses at the Centre. This is as true of Farooq Abdullah as of Chandrababu Naidu as of M Karunanidhi.Having had a stake in central government, they have tasted blood. Jayalalitha now wants to contest a large number of Lok Sabha seats herself and become a central player, instead of forging the old `AIADMK type of arrangement'' with a central party.Mulayam Singh, who is likely to improve his tally this time having consolidated his hold amongst the Yadavs and Muslims with the entry of the likes of Balram Singh Yadav and having made a dent among the Rajputs, is preparing for the ultimate rajtilak at the head of anti-BJP forces.The BSP has been recognised as a national party and if there is one leader who holds the key to this election, it is Mayawati. An arrangement of seat adjustments in Uttar Pradesh between the SP, BSP and the Congress (which together polled 50 pc of the votes last time) would burst the BJP bubble as nothing else. But it is no less than curious that Mayawati has repeatedly insisted that the BSP will contest all the 85 seats in UP.Another distinctive feature of the polity in this election is the overt and crude disappearance of the ideological fig leaves, though the trend is not a new one. Hegde has admitted ideology does not matter. The BJP is justifying its alliance with case entrapped Jayalalitha, though it followed different norms on Laloo Yadav.Since power is the name of the game, the BJP could continue to become more acceptable in the days to come. Conversely, present alliances could shift after the polls. George Fernandes' criticism of certain aspects of the BJP's programme are calculated as much to forge a Muslim-Kurmi (MK) alliance in central Bihar (with Muslims chafing against being taken for granted by Laloo) as to keep his post poll options open. The Akali Dal's decision to support Inder Gujral in Jalandhar in the teeth of opposition by the BJP is another straw in the wind.Election 1998 is going to be the most critical one for the Gandhi family. Should the Congress continue on its downward journey, even after Sonia Gandhi's entry as a campaigner, it would be the end of the dynasty. It is now or never for Sonia. Her influence in the party would have waned if she had not tried to come to the Congress' rescue in its hour of absolute need, particularly when the party seemed to have invited its nemesis on the issue of Rajiv Gandhi's assassination.Sonia Gandhi has decided to take the plunge and may move to capture power piecemeal, starting with the organisation. Sitaram Kesri offered to make way for her but wants to quit at her request, so that if the party does not fare well, she will get the blame. She could have entered the political arena only after the dissolution of the Lok Sabha. She has already enthused a demoralised rank and file of the Congress, and stopped the exodus from the party.She may calculate that even if she just manages to stem the decline of the Congress which has been taking place in successive elections, she will be a player. This time, if there is a possibility of a non-BJP government, the Congress will be inside the coalition, and she will decide who goes in and can safeguard her interests, of running an empire of trusts or on Bofors. Though she may not be accepted as a prime ministerial candidate in a coalition, she may have a say in who become prime Minister (G K Moopanar or Manmohan Singh?) and its partners would have to do business with her. Even the Left is already showing a flexibility about doing business with the Congress to keep the communal forces at bay. On the flip side, she has sent someone like Hegde scurrying into the arms of the BJP in a state where the Congress has been on the upswing. With votes getting segmented on the basis of caste and community over the years, the floating vote which used to create waves has also reduced.
