Reality check

Byelections are often a barometer of public opinion. And when these elections are spread over many states, they may even give an idea of the...

Byelections are often a barometer of public opinion. And when these elections are spread over many states, they may even give an idea of the national mood.

It8217;s precisely for this reason that the elections to the Goa Assembly and a string of byelections to the Lok Sabha and state assemblies, which will conclude on Saturday, evoke so much public interest. Small wonder that the political parties have not spared any efforts to influence the voters in these constituencies.

When the BJP8217;s Goa Chief Minister Manohar Parikkar went in for an early election 8212; two and a half years before the term of the Assembly was to end 8212; his simple calculation was that he would be able to romp home victorious on the plank of good governance. But Godhra and the pogrom that followed put him on the defensive. Now his victory or defeat will be seen as a reflection of the popular reaction to the Gujarat violence. This has emboldened the Congress, which should have been in the doghouse for its failure to provide stability despite the numbers it had in the Assembly, to turn around and claim that communalism was a greater evil than defections by Congress leaders.

If Gujarat is the key issue in Goa, what is on test in Uttar Pradesh is the popularity of the BSP-BJP government. The byelections are a personal challenge to Chief Minister Mayawati because she had vacated two of the seats 8212; one to the Lok Sabha, Akbarpur, and another to the Assembly, Jehangiraganj. The results will show whether the new-found bonhomie between former chief ministers Kalyan Singh and Mulayam Singh Yadav has found favour with the voters.

The BJP8217;s calculations for the next Lok Sabha elections depend on how far its alliance with the BSP has clicked with the voters. BJP8217;s Jharkhand Chief Minister Babulal Marandi also has a personal stake in the byelection in the Dumka Lok Sabha constituency, as the seat was vacated by him. With the Samata Party upset over the manner in which the BJP denied the party its own seat in the Rajya Sabha, the BJP now faces a formidable task in retaining Dumka, particularly because of JMM president Shibu Soren8217;s presence in the fray. Compared to him, Orissa Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik has less at stake in the Bhadrak Assembly constituency.

In the South, it is Chief Minister Jayalalithaa8217;s popularity which is more on test in Acharapakkam, Saidapet and Vaniyambadi, than that of the candidates fielded by the AIADMK. She cannot afford a defeat in any of these constituencies if she has to prove that the phenomenon witnessed at Andipatti where she had a walkover in February last has not already become a thing of the past. In neighbouring Karnataka, a defeat for the Congress at Narasimharaja would confirm that its downslide is now irreversible.