Poll, Self Goal

The BJP shot itself in the foot by rejecting tie-ups with its former ally, Om Prakash Chautala8217;s Indian National Lok Dal in Haryana and...

The BJP shot itself in the foot by rejecting tie-ups with its former ally, Om Prakash Chautala8217;s Indian National Lok Dal in Haryana and the AGP in Assam. The Haryana local unit and senior party leaders like L K Advani were infuriated by Chautala8217;s arrogance. Advani made his dislike of Chautala obvious in a speech in Haryana where he told voters that any national party, even the Congress, was a better option than voting for regional parties.

Chautala believed that he could get away with his cavalier style because he has a warm personal equation with Vajpayee and had not asked for any ministerial berths from the NDA. Since the PM was in favour of the Lok Dal alliance, it was difficult to break ties without a solid reason. Party organisers produced an opinion poll which suggested that the BJP would be handicapped in Haryana by Chautala8217;s unpopularity and that the party would be better off fighting elections on its own. One suspects that in Haryana and Assam the pollsters were asked to tailor their results to fit the requirements of those who commissioned the survey. In Assam, the AGP had modestly asked for only two seats.

Exit polls, Enter Surjeet

The Congress initially declared a boycott of exit polls and to demonstrate its disapproval no party representative was present in the various TV studios when the results of the first stage of the exit polls were announced. But when the exit polls indicated that the Congress was better placed than had been widely assumed, there was a sea change in the mood at the party office. All talk of a boycott was dropped and Congress persons were subsequently enthusiastic participants in debates on TV exit poll findings.

The BJP on the other hand turned cynical about the methodology adopted for poll predictions. Arun Jaitley remarking that 8216;8216;public opinion is not like the Sensex where you have such dramatic drops in one month that the outcome for 70-odd seats alters. Particularly when you consider that nothing very momentous has happened in the country in the last month other than the Indo-Pakistan cricket match.8217;8217;

The Third Front was perhaps the most invigorated by the poll forecasts. Several of the leaders crawled out of the woodwork on sniffing an opportunity to become relevant once again on the national stage. The CPIM8217;s Mr Fixit, Harkishen Singh Surjeet, who was house-bound for much of the campaign because of ill-health, wasted no time to announce that he was back in business and trying to mend fences with Mulayam Singh Yadav. A day after his dialysis, V P Singh issued a statement on the need for secular forces to unite. Sharad Pawar, who had to temporarily drop out of the campaign because of ill-health, was quick to make clear that he too was available for the job of prime ministership.

Out of Control

Some trace the downward slide in the NDA ratings in the polls partly to Narendra Modi8217;s intemperate attacks on Rahul and Priyanka. Despite warning from Delhi that he should tone down his anti-Gandhi family rhetoric, Modi refuses to comply. By inviting him to campaign in UP the BJP seems to have a death wish.

Modi has become so full of his own importance that it has become impossible to reign him in. A month ago, his very active media managers put out a press statement which claimed that 8216;8216;Modi is as great as Vajpayee.8217;8217; The remark was attributed to Advani, when in actuality all the DPM had said in a speech in Surendranagar was that Modi too was a good ruler like Vajpayee. Modi8217;s camp tom-toms the fact that the Gujarat Chief Minister8217;s website gets more daily hits than Advani8217;s and twice as many as Sonia Gandhi8217;s, indicating that he is more popular.

Lakshman Rekha

What is the Lakshman Rekha for the NDA? Some suggest that if the NDA tally falls below 250 the BJP must abandon hopes of forming the government. Others say 240 is a more realistic cut-off mark. Vajpayee can form the government even if the NDA is 32 MPs short of the halfway mark. Apart from the obvious suspects like the SP and BSP, the BJP could start poaching from the Congress8217;s present set of allies including the NCP, DMK and the Telangana Rashtra Samiti. On the other hand, below this bench-mark the Congress and Third Front could be eyeing the BJP8217;s fair weather friends including the Janata Dal U, Biju Janata Dal and the TDP.

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One BJP ally whom the NDA can count on this time is the mercurial Jayalalithaa. The AIADMK manifesto states very clearly that no foreigner should be allowed to become Prime Minister of India and mentions Sonia Gandhi by name, even though the DMK claims this is a violation of the Election Code.

Spoilsport Tactics

It is not just Madhya Pradesh and Bihar but also Maharashtra where Mulayam Singh Yadav is acting as a spoiler to the Congress8217;s chances by fielding candidates who have no chance of winning. In Sholapur, from where Chief Minister Sushil Kumar Shinde8217;s wife Ujwala is standing, the SP put up a Lingayat candidate since the constituency has a substantial Lingayat population. It was only after the CM had a long talk with an industrialist friendly to the SP that the party candidate was instructed to bow out. In Mumbai, however, the SP refused to withdraw its nominees, selectively targeting some Congress candidates.