Polar attraction

However, following the UPA8217;s victory in the trust vote, the new alliance has proved to be merely tactical and transitory. The underlying reason is that in a highly fractured polity, tthe Congress and the BJP remain the two poles around which regional parties revolve making coalition governments possible. Weakness in the states does not prevent national parties from forming a coalition at the centre if they can obtain the support of regional parties, who in turn need the former to maintain their position back home against their rivals. The BJP when it headed the NDA had little representation outside north India but was able to garner support from the AIADMK, TDP, BJD and Samata party among others. The Congress has lost ground in many states but this has not stopped regional groups based in them from aligning with it. The SP is today willing to support the Congress, as it faces no challenge from it in UP; it also allows Mulayam Singh to constantly criticize Mayawati and thereby retrieve lost ground in the state. Smaller parties such as the Left, BSP and SP are expendable and get squeezed between the two big players in rapidly shifting national politics as long as there are others willing to take their place.

Can the BSP, which represents a new political force based on democratisation in a key state, form the pole around which regional parties revolve? Despite the growing importance of Dalit politics, this does not seem possible at present. The BSP has little electoral gains to offer to other UNPA constituents as they have separate regional strongholds. In the Hindi heartland except for Bihar unlike in UP the Congress and BJP remain strong parties in a competitive two-party system in which the BSP is the 8220;third front8221; standing in between. There are no potential allies for the BSP in these states or in Karnataka and Gujarat. In the southern states the BSP faces hostility rather than partnerships. The TDP is keen to appropriate the highly mobilised Dalit vote in Andhra Pradesh. In Maharashtra, Dalit leaders within the RPI and outside, considering themselves the real heirs of the Ambedkarite legacy, have been apprehensive of Maya-wati carving out a vote-bank among their followers. In Tamil Nadu neither the established Dravidian parties, nor the Dalit/backward parties existing in their shadow, are interested in an alliance.

These factors explain the fragile basis of the UNPA. Attention has already shifted to alignments required in the Lok Sabha elections. The Left parties are debating whether to support the TDP or Chiranjeevi8217;s new party; RLD has already attacked the third front; the AIADMK is keenly watching for new alignments after the break-up of the DMK and PMK. While the BSP may enjoy stability in UP, leading a national front is not possible unless Mayawati can attract regional allies. Thus, changes in the states are driving national politics but this paradoxically does not seem to make the national parties irrelevant.

The writer is professor, Centre for Political Studies, JNU, and currently senior fellow, Nehru Memorial Museum and Library, New Delhi